Let's see...I have one over at Plum Line about the GOP nightmare scenario in which Santorum keeps "winning" every Tuesday night but Romney, meanwhile, locks up the delegates he needs. Could be fun! I have another at Greg's place about the polls this week, so if you haven't had enough about polling variation from me already you'll want to read that.
And at Post Politics I said that Santorum may be no closer to the nomination after last night, but he did lock up a solid second place showing. Now, just to be clear: I don't believe that finishing runner-up automatically makes someone the next GOP nominee. Haven't changed my mind about that. But resources matter, and Santorum is, if he behaves himself over the next few weeks, gathering useful resources for a future presidential run. He's also quite a bit more likely to get the VP slot than he would have been if he fizzled out yesterday and didn't revive, and that too puts him a lot closer to a future nomination.
I have a hard time taking Santorum in 'Sixteen seriously as well, but if I recall correctly he is in fact doing relatively well among younger Republicans, so maybe he will be just the candidate for whomever is still in the GOP by then.
ReplyDeleteI'm not so sure that Santorum should be in serious contention even if he appeals as much as he does to the conservative base. May not bode well for general election or future health of the Republican Party.
ReplyDeleteI think Santorum has earned respect for his persistence and success in this race, and that should make him a major contender next time. However, he's got a major load of baggage that the media has just barely scratched. I wouldn't be surprised if some particular items, or the weight of so many issues, disqualified him as a serious contender in 2016. Google "Santorum scandal" to get started. You'll be busy for a while.
DeleteI agree that he has been persistent in this race, but think that the success has more to do with a lack of high-quality options rather than his personal excellence. I lived in PA during his last campaign where he suffered that brutal defeat--it was not pretty.
DeleteI also think that if the Republican party continues to lean toward the conservative base as they have been, it may force the more moderate voters to look elsewhere for representation.
Do you think Santorum has increased his VP chances even in light of Romney seeming to explicitly rule him out just two days ago?
ReplyDeletehttp://maddowblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/03/13/10668825-santorum-for-vp-romney-doesnt-think-so
In Cavuto's question about possibly needing to choose a very conservative running mate, someone even to Romney's right, he didn't even mention Santorum's name, but Romney offered it up anyway:
"Well, that would preclude, of course, Rick Santorum. Because, I mean, look at his record. I find it interesting that he continues to describe himself as the real conservative. This is the guy who voted against right-to-work. This is the guy that voted to fund Planned Parenthood. This is the person who voted to raise the debt ceiling five times without any compensating cuts."
Considering that Romney is attacking Santorum for a position he himself once took (supporting Planned Parenthood) it's probably safe to say we can discount anything he says on the matter. He's still trying to stop Santorum, and his message is that Santorum is not a reliable conservative like everyone knows Romney is. That doesn't mean he'll stick to this point if Santorum continues to score embarrassing victories.
DeleteI'm sure Romney doesn't want Santorum as his running mate (for quite different reasons than the ones he's stating, of course), but if Santorum continues to hang on in the race, it could reach the point where the choice will make some sense, or at least Romney might perceive it that way. Even then, it won't be inevitable: one can make a good case that Santorum's rise has far more to do with Romney's weaknesses than with Santorum's strengths, and Romney may well be better served looking elsewhere to find someone who can draw in the conservative base. Nevertheless, the longer Santorum survives, and the closer we get to Jon's nightmare scenario, the more likely it becomes that Romney will have little choice but to pick Santorum.
Off topic, maybe it is time for you to do another 10/6 myth post in response to this? When I read it I had trouble remembering why you disagreed, and a lot of people probably don't know anyone disagrees.
ReplyDeleteSantorum only has delegates in 4 of Illinois' 18 districts. Four districts weren't filed, and in 10 districts his delegates were disqualified for a lack of signatures. He's incompetent.
ReplyDeleteIt's true that Mike Huckabee decided on a different path than repeating his run. However, I think that coming in No. 2 brings people to you who can do the organizing necessary for a successful bid. I think that Republicans, for whatever reason, need more infrastructure, or party player support, than Democrats do.
How was Santorum supposed to know signatures would be checked for Republican candidates? That's only done for Democrats.
DeleteIt will be an interesting test of Romeny's skill.
ReplyDeleteJust as in 2008. Obama could have kneecapped HRC after New Hampshire by calling the AFL-CIO (which was the only group supporting HRC) and saying, what do I need to do to make you go away?
Now, Mitt just has to say to Santorum, what do I need to do to make you go away?
This is the problem with the party-decides model. IN the end, there are people invovled. Even more true this year when there is a wide split between what voters want and what "the party" wants.
The only way any scenario in which Romney wins the nomination is a nightmare for him is if Santorum or Gingrich contest it at the convention and even go third party if they are denied. Otherwise the party will rally around Romney just as predictably as the Democrats rallied around Obama after he failed to beat Hillary Clinton in the "big states" in 2008. It doesn't even matter if Romney can't turn to the general election until July because true swing voters aren't even paying attention to the general at that point. As long as Romney gets to raise his hands in victory at the convention, whatever happened in the primaries is irrelevant.
ReplyDelete