Particularly curious to see what happens to marijuana initiative in Colorado, and I-502 (marijuana) here in Washington State and after each (likely in Colorado) passes how the Feds will take this one on.
Michigan's Proposal 5, which would amend the state constitution to require a 2/3 majority on new revenues (like California's Prop 13). It will be a disaster for Lansing if it passes.
Interested in the marriage and marijuana initiatives across all states because I think they are both issues where public sentiment is heading in one direction, though possibly slowly. Having them pass might produce some bandwagon effects for future cycles. The marijuana initiative in my state (Oregon) is the least likely of the marijuana ones to pass.
There is also a let's-build-a-casino initiative which is basically DOA though it's probably the initiative Ive seen the most ads for here.
Just curious, are there any let's-ban-Sharia or similarly wacko initiatives in conservative states this cycle? I'll be interested to keep an eye on those as well.
I am interested in how the pre-K for SA ballot initiative goes here in San Antonio. I don't get a vote as a Selma resident, but I think this is an interesting proposal in its own right, and it also likely sets up what will be a key issue in the 2014 gubenatorial election between Castro and Perry.
In addition, I am interested in all of the marriage equality and marijuana initiatives out there.
Prop 30 in CA. If that doesn't pass we don't get to have schools anymore. We've already lost healthcare and welfare for blind people; schools are all we've got left.
Prop 32 in CA. If that one passes then the Democratic Party doesn't get to have money anymore, which is a more long-term way for us to lose schools and healthcare and welfare for blind people.
I don't know about the ones in other states; from the other posters it sounds like Michigan's trying to follow us down the road to Hell.
I second Chaz. The budget crunch in CA has been slowly ruining lives that it hasn't ruined quickly. And we won't have any kind of public schools, including universities.
Prop 30: it directly impacts my pocketbook (CSU professor), to the tune of either a 2.5% or 5% pay cut if it fails. Right now, I'd say that's a distinct possibility, but I'd guess it passes.
Since 1996 (which is the data I have....I haven't finished getting all the rest of the data into a usable format yet...this is for a small book project of mine), polling is a good indicator of likelihood of passing (duh!). Prop 66 (2004) failed after having a 22 point lead, and Prop 26 (2000) did with a 10 point lead. Those are the only 2 out of the 47 which had leads of 4 points or more (which is where Prop 30 is today, using Scott Lay's "average of the polls" method). However, all 3 props that had leads of 2-3 points (props 62 in '04, 4 in '08, and 85 in '06) lost. (This is just a hiccup, though, as props that polled tied in the last poll were 4 for 7).
Would I be more comfortable with a 5 point lead than a 4 point lead? Yes--MUCH more comfortable. But, I gotta say, I'm much happier with a 4 point lead than a 3 point lead. Prop 30 is at the steepest point on the gradient of likelihood of winning.
Oregon is voting on legalizing marijuana with licensing and stores to sell it. I hope it passes but am not sure the feds will allow it anyway.
Oregon voted to ban gay marriage in 2004 which still has me in shock. I wish good luck to all states who are trying to legalize it and hope someday Oregon will come to its senses.
In Michigan, we could potentially declare collective bargaining a right... we are doing a referendum on contraversial governor-appointed managers for failing cities... we have two initiatives by Ambassador Bridge owner Mouron and also Norquist that will straightjacket our budget as badly as California's.
I'm truly amazed there isn't more national coverage of Michigan's ballot proposals. We've got a lot of big ones that I figure would grab attention.
Death penalty ban in California is a big one.
ReplyDeleteParticularly curious to see what happens to marijuana initiative in Colorado, and I-502 (marijuana) here in Washington State and after each (likely in Colorado) passes how the Feds will take this one on.
ReplyDeleteMarriage equality in Maine.
ReplyDeleteMarijuana initiative in CO.
Doctor-assisted suicide in MA.
Proposition 74 in Washington State (gay marriage legalization)
ReplyDeleteMichigan's Proposal 5, which would amend the state constitution to require a 2/3 majority on new revenues (like California's Prop 13). It will be a disaster for Lansing if it passes.
ReplyDeleteFrom Washington state... 502 (marijuana) and 74 (gay marriage)
ReplyDeleteInterested in the marriage and marijuana initiatives across all states because I think they are both issues where public sentiment is heading in one direction, though possibly slowly. Having them pass might produce some bandwagon effects for future cycles. The marijuana initiative in my state (Oregon) is the least likely of the marijuana ones to pass.
ReplyDeleteThere is also a let's-build-a-casino initiative which is basically DOA though it's probably the initiative Ive seen the most ads for here.
Just curious, are there any let's-ban-Sharia or similarly wacko initiatives in conservative states this cycle? I'll be interested to keep an eye on those as well.
I am interested in how the pre-K for SA ballot initiative goes here in San Antonio. I don't get a vote as a Selma resident, but I think this is an interesting proposal in its own right, and it also likely sets up what will be a key issue in the 2014 gubenatorial election between Castro and Perry.
ReplyDeleteIn addition, I am interested in all of the marriage equality and marijuana initiatives out there.
Marijuana legalization, plus the union-busting initiatives in Michigan and California.
ReplyDeleteMarriage and voter ID in Minnesota
ReplyDeleteGambling in Maryland
Marijuana legalization, particurally in Colorado
Prop 30 in CA. If that doesn't pass we don't get to have schools anymore. We've already lost healthcare and welfare for blind people; schools are all we've got left.
ReplyDeleteProp 32 in CA. If that one passes then the Democratic Party doesn't get to have money anymore, which is a more long-term way for us to lose schools and healthcare and welfare for blind people.
I don't know about the ones in other states; from the other posters it sounds like Michigan's trying to follow us down the road to Hell.
I second Chaz. The budget crunch in CA has been slowly ruining lives that it hasn't ruined quickly. And we won't have any kind of public schools, including universities.
DeleteProp 30: it directly impacts my pocketbook (CSU professor), to the tune of either a 2.5% or 5% pay cut if it fails. Right now, I'd say that's a distinct possibility, but I'd guess it passes.
DeleteSince 1996 (which is the data I have....I haven't finished getting all the rest of the data into a usable format yet...this is for a small book project of mine), polling is a good indicator of likelihood of passing (duh!). Prop 66 (2004) failed after having a 22 point lead, and Prop 26 (2000) did with a 10 point lead. Those are the only 2 out of the 47 which had leads of 4 points or more (which is where Prop 30 is today, using Scott Lay's "average of the polls" method). However, all 3 props that had leads of 2-3 points (props 62 in '04, 4 in '08, and 85 in '06) lost. (This is just a hiccup, though, as props that polled tied in the last poll were 4 for 7).
Would I be more comfortable with a 5 point lead than a 4 point lead? Yes--MUCH more comfortable. But, I gotta say, I'm much happier with a 4 point lead than a 3 point lead. Prop 30 is at the steepest point on the gradient of likelihood of winning.
Here in Maine, gay marriage question. I have been campaigning for the "Yes on 1" campaign. Hoping it passes.
ReplyDeleteOregon is voting on legalizing marijuana with licensing and stores to sell it. I hope it passes but am not sure the feds will allow it anyway.
ReplyDeleteOregon voted to ban gay marriage in 2004 which still has me in shock. I wish good luck to all states who are trying to legalize it and hope someday Oregon will come to its senses.
Marijuana legalization in Washington, charter schools as well...
ReplyDeleteIn Michigan, we could potentially declare collective bargaining a right... we are doing a referendum on contraversial governor-appointed managers for failing cities... we have two initiatives by Ambassador Bridge owner Mouron and also Norquist that will straightjacket our budget as badly as California's.
ReplyDeleteI'm truly amazed there isn't more national coverage of Michigan's ballot proposals.
We've got a lot of big ones that I figure would grab attention.