Most Republican candidates will continue to oppose gay marriage. Those that support it will have great difficulty winning contested Republican primaries. The religiously traditional wing of the Republican primary electorate remains strongly opposed to gay marriage, and the more libertarian wing of the party is mostly indifferent about the issue. Some active Republicans under the age of 35 support gay marriage, but they are unlikely to be numerous enough to swing Republican primaries in 2014 or 2016. There will be a few gay marriage supporters nominated by Republicans for races on the east and west coasts, but not very many.
I can't imagine any Republican Presidential wannabe coming out in favor of marriage equality in 2016. 2020? Probably, but not 2016. I think what you're going to see is alot of the sort of muted responses you saw to the DOMA decision - basically emphasizing that it's a state matter. I think you'll see a lot of "I still believe marriage is between a man and a woman" with alot of more or less overt "I don't actually hate gay people" messages sent out at the same time to suburban folks and young people. You won't see anything like a repeat of that atrocious booing of the gay soldier in one of the many 2012 debates.
You're right, Anon, that some of us under 35 do support gay marriage. Indeed, I'd say under 25 it's getting damn close to a majority, if it's not there yet. But the primaries are dominated by older folks and evangelicals and anyone that goes further than the sort of tentative steps I mentioned above can probably kiss any notion of placing somewhat respectably in Iowa goodbye. Why we have to keep kissing Iowa's behind, I'm not sure.
I don't know what you mean by "marriage." The previous commenters seem to assume you mean gay marriage - perhaps that is the case. Certainly, the only time the majority of Democrats care one whit about marriage is when it comes to homosexuals.
The Republican Party has always been the party of family values, loyalty, hard work, dedication, conscientiousness, self-discipline and self-improvement. Perhaps these aren't fashionable values in the age of Obamacare, but they remain our values, and obviously marriage is at the centre of that. Married people vote overwhelmingly Republican, and this gap would be even bigger if we could properly separate out the widowed from the other non-married. Marriage is not an issue that divides Republicans, it is one that unites us; Republicans support marriage, while the Party of the Shiftless opposes it.
Your manichean view of the American politics would be chilling if I couldn't dismiss you as a powerless internet troll/commenter. However, I'm living proof against your viewpoint. I'm married (over 30 years), have children, have a job, and voted for Obama. I scoff at your constant attempts to paint me as "shiftless." Good luck trying to win elections with that "us vs. them" attitude.
The fact that you view anyone who puts across conservative positions as a troll is a sad reflection on you, but yes, I'm definitely a powerless internet commenter. I'm not trying to win elections, and it would be ridiculous to think that I am. I'm just calling it like I see it.
And you're right; there are some married people who vote Democrat, although the overwhelming majority vote Republican (56 - 42 at the last election). I'm not even saying that all Democrats are shiftless. I'm merely saying that every policy of that party is set up to encourage and reward shiftlessness, and that the shiftless overwhelmingly vote Democrat. In fact, the Democrat leadership is not shiftless at all - they are very industrious in their looting of the public weal. There are some good people who are foolish enough to vote Democrat, but that is completely beside the point.
You're mistaken if you think I call every conservative commenter a troll. Maybe you should look for the more proximate reason...
Another point. 42% is a large minority not to be overlooked or dismissed.
Finally, some good people are foolish enough to vote Republican too, similarly to the good people who are foolish enough to vote Democrat. Neither side has cornered the market on foolish but generally well-meaning voters. That's another way of saying you make specious claims on that one.
I never said the Democrats had cornered the market on the foolish but well-meaning. I said they'd cornered the market on the shiftless. Try to keep up.
As for me trolling... what did I say that wasn't either a fact, or a recitation of boilerplate Republican values?
Before I tell you what makes you a troll, why don't you take a guess. What could a reader possibly consider trollish about your posts? If you make a real effort, I'll answer. If you don't, you don't care anyhow.
Honestly, I don't care why you consider me a troll, because I always post in good faith. As I said above, it's a reflection on you, not on me.
I assume that you call me a troll because I talk about Democrats in the same way that 99% of commenters here - including you - talk about Republicans. That doesn't make me a troll, it just means that you can dish it out but can't take it.
Yup, I knew you didn't care why I consider you a troll. You complain about it for show.
It's interesting that you aren't here to win elections, but just "in good faith" to call 'em as you see 'em. I wonder how you stretch the definition of "good faith" to include leading with insults, as you invariably do.
Actually, I didn't complain about it. I said it was a sad reflection on you. If you like, you can take that as an insult, as you're so obviously keen to take everything else that way.
The sooner the GOP gets out of the way of legalizing same sex marriages the better for them. It's not a question of if, it's a matter of when and how.
By 2016 all of the Northeast, West Coast, and parts of the Midwest, Mountain West and Southwest will have states where a clear majority of voters will be supportive of marriage equality. Additionally, the 2016 general election should see a number of states voting to repeal their current marriage amendments - OH, NV, CO, AZ, and MI all have groups actively working towards that end.
Unfortunately for aspiring GOP politicians, a key part of the GOP coalition is not going to let the party quietly get out of the way. The Religious Right is going to demand public statements affirming "traditional" marriage only. And those statements could hamper the 2016 nominee in the above mentioned states.
Marriage is going to be ab albatross around the neck of the GOP for a few more years. They really could use an assist from Roberts and Kennedy here.
Most Republican candidates will continue to oppose gay marriage. Those that support it will have great difficulty winning contested Republican primaries. The religiously traditional wing of the Republican primary electorate remains strongly opposed to gay marriage, and the more libertarian wing of the party is mostly indifferent about the issue. Some active Republicans under the age of 35 support gay marriage, but they are unlikely to be numerous enough to swing Republican primaries in 2014 or 2016. There will be a few gay marriage supporters nominated by Republicans for races on the east and west coasts, but not very many.
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine any Republican Presidential wannabe coming out in favor of marriage equality in 2016. 2020? Probably, but not 2016. I think what you're going to see is alot of the sort of muted responses you saw to the DOMA decision - basically emphasizing that it's a state matter. I think you'll see a lot of "I still believe marriage is between a man and a woman" with alot of more or less overt "I don't actually hate gay people" messages sent out at the same time to suburban folks and young people. You won't see anything like a repeat of that atrocious booing of the gay soldier in one of the many 2012 debates.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, Anon, that some of us under 35 do support gay marriage. Indeed, I'd say under 25 it's getting damn close to a majority, if it's not there yet. But the primaries are dominated by older folks and evangelicals and anyone that goes further than the sort of tentative steps I mentioned above can probably kiss any notion of placing somewhat respectably in Iowa goodbye. Why we have to keep kissing Iowa's behind, I'm not sure.
I don't know what you mean by "marriage." The previous commenters seem to assume you mean gay marriage - perhaps that is the case. Certainly, the only time the majority of Democrats care one whit about marriage is when it comes to homosexuals.
ReplyDeleteThe Republican Party has always been the party of family values, loyalty, hard work, dedication, conscientiousness, self-discipline and self-improvement. Perhaps these aren't fashionable values in the age of Obamacare, but they remain our values, and obviously marriage is at the centre of that. Married people vote overwhelmingly Republican, and this gap would be even bigger if we could properly separate out the widowed from the other non-married. Marriage is not an issue that divides Republicans, it is one that unites us; Republicans support marriage, while the Party of the Shiftless opposes it.
Your manichean view of the American politics would be chilling if I couldn't dismiss you as a powerless internet troll/commenter. However, I'm living proof against your viewpoint. I'm married (over 30 years), have children, have a job, and voted for Obama. I scoff at your constant attempts to paint me as "shiftless." Good luck trying to win elections with that "us vs. them" attitude.
DeleteThe fact that you view anyone who puts across conservative positions as a troll is a sad reflection on you, but yes, I'm definitely a powerless internet commenter. I'm not trying to win elections, and it would be ridiculous to think that I am. I'm just calling it like I see it.
DeleteAnd you're right; there are some married people who vote Democrat, although the overwhelming majority vote Republican (56 - 42 at the last election). I'm not even saying that all Democrats are shiftless. I'm merely saying that every policy of that party is set up to encourage and reward shiftlessness, and that the shiftless overwhelmingly vote Democrat. In fact, the Democrat leadership is not shiftless at all - they are very industrious in their looting of the public weal. There are some good people who are foolish enough to vote Democrat, but that is completely beside the point.
You're mistaken if you think I call every conservative commenter a troll. Maybe you should look for the more proximate reason...
DeleteAnother point. 42% is a large minority not to be overlooked or dismissed.
Finally, some good people are foolish enough to vote Republican too, similarly to the good people who are foolish enough to vote Democrat. Neither side has cornered the market on foolish but generally well-meaning voters. That's another way of saying you make specious claims on that one.
I never said the Democrats had cornered the market on the foolish but well-meaning. I said they'd cornered the market on the shiftless. Try to keep up.
DeleteAs for me trolling... what did I say that wasn't either a fact, or a recitation of boilerplate Republican values?
Before I tell you what makes you a troll, why don't you take a guess. What could a reader possibly consider trollish about your posts? If you make a real effort, I'll answer. If you don't, you don't care anyhow.
DeleteHonestly, I don't care why you consider me a troll, because I always post in good faith. As I said above, it's a reflection on you, not on me.
ReplyDeleteI assume that you call me a troll because I talk about Democrats in the same way that 99% of commenters here - including you - talk about Republicans. That doesn't make me a troll, it just means that you can dish it out but can't take it.
Yup, I knew you didn't care why I consider you a troll. You complain about it for show.
DeleteIt's interesting that you aren't here to win elections, but just "in good faith" to call 'em as you see 'em. I wonder how you stretch the definition of "good faith" to include leading with insults, as you invariably do.
Actually, I didn't complain about it. I said it was a sad reflection on you. If you like, you can take that as an insult, as you're so obviously keen to take everything else that way.
DeleteMore "good faith" from you...
DeleteWhat a lively thread!
ReplyDeleteThe sooner the GOP gets out of the way of legalizing same sex marriages the better for them. It's not a question of if, it's a matter of when and how.
By 2016 all of the Northeast, West Coast, and parts of the Midwest, Mountain West and Southwest will have states where a clear majority of voters will be supportive of marriage equality. Additionally, the 2016 general election should see a number of states voting to repeal their current marriage amendments - OH, NV, CO, AZ, and MI all have groups actively working towards that end.
Unfortunately for aspiring GOP politicians, a key part of the GOP coalition is not going to let the party quietly get out of the way. The Religious Right is going to demand public statements affirming "traditional" marriage only. And those statements could hamper the 2016 nominee in the above mentioned states.
Marriage is going to be ab albatross around the neck of the GOP for a few more years. They really could use an assist from Roberts and Kennedy here.