The Republican caucus is too fractious to accomplish the House's job of passing a CR and raising the debt limit alone.
The Democrats in the Senate refuse to be bullied into rewarding the Republicans for doing their job.
Nancy Pelosi insists on Boehner's offering the Senate's bill on immigration to the House as a reward for her caucus' cooperation.
Three weeks from now, Boehner offers a clean CR, a clean debt limit raise, and immigration all up for a vote. The first two pass, and immigration fails on a party-line vote.
Pelosi can't vote against a clean CR and so can't demand immigration. Though she could demand that in exchange for propping him up as speaker in the event of a challenge from the right.
The government shuts down. When Republicans learn once again (as they did in the 1990s) that the government is actually popular when it's absent, they find a sheepish way to surrender on the shutdown and the debt limit. Obama offers in return some barely face-saving concession (not delaying the Affordable Care Act, of course) that will still leave both the Republican and the Democratic bases screaming betrayal. Obama as usual will get 85% of what he wanted while still leaving the impression that he doesn't know how to play the game.
The government shuts down Tuesday. Fox News and the right wing noise machine goes into overdrive accusing the Dems of being unwilling to compromise, and ignoring the dangers of ACA.
Meanwhile, it gives the Obama administration an audience it would not otherwise have when it explains the implementation of ACA now underway. And the President of the US and congressional Dems stand firm on democratic principles, refusing extortion. Characterizing this as a constitutional crisis is not a stretch.
Then a fierce battle to characterize which way public opinion is going. Nothing is revealed. The baseball playoffs start.
I don't see any compromise likely from either side, which is what makes this all unpredictable beyond next week. I've yet to hear a plausible end game.
I'm against a shutdown and all this brinksmanship, but, politically, I think that Boehner has (unfortunately) done a better job at spreading the blame this time. Pelosi is insisting on an immigration reform bill as the price for her help in the House, and that the Senate wasn't even working over the weekend, the "right wing noise machine" has some valid talking points.
I think the plausible end game is a repeal of the tax on medical devices, with perhaps a couple of months delay of the ACA for face-saving "technical glitch" reasons.
Probably correct that it is at least equally about fleecing and picking the pockets of the credulous base as it is about any particular issue du jour. On the D's side, there still seems to be at least some ethical fragment that when you clean out someone's wallet, they're entitled to something for their money.
But - the crazies who are pushing this brinksmanship might actually be crazy or stupid enough to stand their ground for a long time and do a lot of damage.
They hate government, are not responsive to what passes for responsible leadership from Boehner, et. al. [Cf Ted Cruz instructing the House] and are ideologically committed to the destruction of every progressive development this country has implemented since the Great Depression. This is not hyperbole. Check out the platform of the Texas Republican Party.
I don't see anything good coming out of this. And of course none of it is necessary. It's a purely manufactured crisis,and that right there tells you most of what you need to know.
Govt funding: It will end in the most boring way possible, all while commentators try to make it seem as dramatic as possible.The bill ping pongs from the House to the Senate and back a few times, with a temporary extension granted in between. The Republicans end up with a repeal of the medical device tax and maybe a repeal of subsidies for some federal employees. Boehner tries to play hardball with his caucus but still has to violate the Hastert rule to get the votes.
Debt limit increase: Pretty much the same, but Boehner ends up getting enough Republicans to pass it without violating Hastert. Maybe there's some kind of spending cut or defense spending increase as a fig leaf for Republicans who vote "aye."
Government shutsdown, Stays that way for a week or two. GOP starts to get yelled out, but GOP caucus doesn't want to cave. Eventually you get a debt ceiling/CR with KXL attached. Obama signs.
2. Voters get mad because they start realizing how many services are "government", plus a lot of voters aren't even aware this is happening (many of them probably think this was all dealt with in 2011 and 2012).
3. Wall Street starts freaking out because they realize that the Tea Party isn't joking around and really could breach the debt ceiling (they've been quiet lately because they assume that this is all just typical brinksmanship that will be solved at the last second).
4. Republicans get hammered by voters and by Wall Street, especially the ones who aren't members of the 40-60 member crazy caucus.
5. Over half of the Republican caucus tells Boehner that it's okay to put a clean* bill up for a vote, that it's time to end this and that now everyone at least knows where Republicans stand. This bill also raises the debt ceiling.
6. All Democrats vote for the bill as well as a faction of those Republicans who were okay with it.
7. Bill is signed, Club for Growth and Heritage start circulating lists of Republicans who voted for it saying they should be primaried.
*Or it could potentially have a minor face-saving concession. If that's the case, my money is on it being clean except for also getting rid of subsidies for Congressmen and their staffers when they use the health care exchanges. Of course, this will backfire. Like the "Senate must pass a budget" bit, it will do absolutely nothing other than rob them of a precious talking point. Except this time it'll result in an effective pay cut for Congress and its staff, and a lot of staffers will be mad.
Some Republicans will end up voting for a clean-ish CR. Some of them will have participated in three or four Hastert rule violations, making them genuine RINOs by going against their party on most key votes. So some of them in swing districts will become Democrats, either just before the vote or just after. Republicans will keep the speakership but lose 5-15 seats.
Revised: This now looks less likely to me, since almost all the Republicans voting most often against Boehner are in relatively safe districts, with PVIs of R+6 or more. The one exception, and the most obvious candidate for a party switch, is Tom Petri (WI-6).
Something I was pondering recently. Why wouldn't Republicans, and more specifically Boehner, want to use a series of continuing resolutions to pass a budget and a debt ceiling, but never raise it so much that it goes away as an issue? This would allow for new bills that included the Christmas list of demands that Republicans in the House can be seen as voting for to demonstrate their true beliefs to their constituents. Probably gives Republicans in the Senate like Ted Cruz the opportunity to stand and talk and raise their own profile. Boehner is pretty much guaranteed votes from the Democrats in the House who may want to pass a more permanent, bill but also want to avoid a shut down. The same could be said for the Senate. Would they really not pass a continuing resolution? The media will still pay a ton of attention to this issue, giving more and more airtime to different politicians in both parties. People will still donate to their campaigns. Boehner can keep his caucus in check by continually promising that it will be the next time that the Democrats will cave in.
I don't think this will happen because it strikes me as too sinister, too subject to something going wrong, and frankly requires the kind of speculative thinking that is easily punctured. But it does make me wonder a bit about the outcome of the budget/debt fights. It was supposed to be fixed in the intervening period but didn't and I don't see how this time is going to be any different this time around.
Government shutdown. And, if they can manage it, default.
Why? Because this isn't, ultimately, about the ACA. The ACA is the vehicle not the point.
The bigger and more important point is negating a democratic election. Negating the will of the majority. The special interests pushing this are confident that they will not experience any significant or lasting harm from a government shut down or even a default -- any minor harm they might experience will be more than made up for by what they will win; the weakening of democratic power and government -- more specifically it's ability to respond to the needs, and protect the interests, of the broader public of workers and consumers. This isn't simply a blow against Obama -- this is a strike at the democratic power of the majority of working and middle class Americans, through economic blackmail engineered by a minority. For these interests the economic harm and loss of economic and political power that workers and consumers will experience from these developments is a plus.
The Republican caucus is too fractious to accomplish the House's job of passing a CR and raising the debt limit alone.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrats in the Senate refuse to be bullied into rewarding the Republicans for doing their job.
Nancy Pelosi insists on Boehner's offering the Senate's bill on immigration to the House as a reward for her caucus' cooperation.
Three weeks from now, Boehner offers a clean CR, a clean debt limit raise, and immigration all up for a vote. The first two pass, and immigration fails on a party-line vote.
Pelosi can't vote against a clean CR and so can't demand immigration. Though she could demand that in exchange for propping him up as speaker in the event of a challenge from the right.
DeleteI have absolutely no idea.
ReplyDeleteThe government shuts down. When Republicans learn once again (as they did in the 1990s) that the government is actually popular when it's absent, they find a sheepish way to surrender on the shutdown and the debt limit. Obama offers in return some barely face-saving concession (not delaying the Affordable Care Act, of course) that will still leave both the Republican and the Democratic bases screaming betrayal. Obama as usual will get 85% of what he wanted while still leaving the impression that he doesn't know how to play the game.
ReplyDeleteThe government shuts down Tuesday. Fox News and the right wing noise machine goes into overdrive accusing the Dems of being unwilling to compromise, and ignoring the dangers of ACA.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, it gives the Obama administration an audience it would not otherwise have when it explains the implementation of ACA now underway. And the President of the US and congressional Dems stand firm on democratic principles, refusing extortion. Characterizing this as a constitutional crisis is not a stretch.
Then a fierce battle to characterize which way public opinion is going. Nothing is revealed. The baseball playoffs start.
I don't see any compromise likely from either side, which is what makes this all unpredictable beyond next week. I've yet to hear a plausible end game.
I'm against a shutdown and all this brinksmanship, but, politically, I think that Boehner has (unfortunately) done a better job at spreading the blame this time. Pelosi is insisting on an immigration reform bill as the price for her help in the House, and that the Senate wasn't even working over the weekend, the "right wing noise machine" has some valid talking points.
DeleteI think the plausible end game is a repeal of the tax on medical devices, with perhaps a couple of months delay of the ACA for face-saving "technical glitch" reasons.
As soon as the money stops flowing into the 2014 campaign coffers, the shutdown will disappear. Its all to raise money for ads.
ReplyDeleteProbably correct that it is at least equally about fleecing and picking the pockets of the credulous base as it is about any particular issue du jour. On the D's side, there still seems to be at least some ethical fragment that when you clean out someone's wallet, they're entitled to something for their money.
DeleteFor the CR, I think we'll see a brief shutdown starting Tuesday that will last a few days to a week and be resolved mostly favorably to the Dems.
ReplyDeleteOn the debt ceiling I dunno what will happen, but Im leaning towards a clean increase will pass the house on a Hastert violation vote.
I think Andrew Sabl has it about right.
ReplyDeleteBut - the crazies who are pushing this brinksmanship might actually be crazy or stupid enough to stand their ground for a long time and do a lot of damage.
They hate government, are not responsive to what passes for responsible leadership from Boehner, et. al. [Cf Ted Cruz instructing the House] and are ideologically committed to the destruction of every progressive development this country has implemented since the Great Depression. This is not hyperbole. Check out the platform of the Texas Republican Party.
I don't see anything good coming out of this. And of course none of it is necessary. It's a purely manufactured crisis,and that right there tells you most of what you need to know.
JzB
Govt funding: It will end in the most boring way possible, all while commentators try to make it seem as dramatic as possible.The bill ping pongs from the House to the Senate and back a few times, with a temporary extension granted in between. The Republicans end up with a repeal of the medical device tax and maybe a repeal of subsidies for some federal employees. Boehner tries to play hardball with his caucus but still has to violate the Hastert rule to get the votes.
ReplyDeleteDebt limit increase: Pretty much the same, but Boehner ends up getting enough Republicans to pass it without violating Hastert. Maybe there's some kind of spending cut or defense spending increase as a fig leaf for Republicans who vote "aye."
Government shutsdown, Stays that way for a week or two. GOP starts to get yelled out, but GOP caucus doesn't want to cave. Eventually you get a debt ceiling/CR with KXL attached. Obama signs.
ReplyDelete1. Government shuts down
ReplyDelete2. Voters get mad because they start realizing how many services are "government", plus a lot of voters aren't even aware this is happening (many of them probably think this was all dealt with in 2011 and 2012).
3. Wall Street starts freaking out because they realize that the Tea Party isn't joking around and really could breach the debt ceiling (they've been quiet lately because they assume that this is all just typical brinksmanship that will be solved at the last second).
4. Republicans get hammered by voters and by Wall Street, especially the ones who aren't members of the 40-60 member crazy caucus.
5. Over half of the Republican caucus tells Boehner that it's okay to put a clean* bill up for a vote, that it's time to end this and that now everyone at least knows where Republicans stand. This bill also raises the debt ceiling.
6. All Democrats vote for the bill as well as a faction of those Republicans who were okay with it.
7. Bill is signed, Club for Growth and Heritage start circulating lists of Republicans who voted for it saying they should be primaried.
*Or it could potentially have a minor face-saving concession. If that's the case, my money is on it being clean except for also getting rid of subsidies for Congressmen and their staffers when they use the health care exchanges. Of course, this will backfire. Like the "Senate must pass a budget" bit, it will do absolutely nothing other than rob them of a precious talking point. Except this time it'll result in an effective pay cut for Congress and its staff, and a lot of staffers will be mad.
Some Republicans will end up voting for a clean-ish CR. Some of them will have participated in three or four Hastert rule violations, making them genuine RINOs by going against their party on most key votes. So some of them in swing districts will become Democrats, either just before the vote or just after. Republicans will keep the speakership but lose 5-15 seats.
ReplyDeleteRevised: This now looks less likely to me, since almost all the Republicans voting most often against Boehner are in relatively safe districts, with PVIs of R+6 or more. The one exception, and the most obvious candidate for a party switch, is Tom Petri (WI-6).
DeleteSomething I was pondering recently. Why wouldn't Republicans, and more specifically Boehner, want to use a series of continuing resolutions to pass a budget and a debt ceiling, but never raise it so much that it goes away as an issue? This would allow for new bills that included the Christmas list of demands that Republicans in the House can be seen as voting for to demonstrate their true beliefs to their constituents. Probably gives Republicans in the Senate like Ted Cruz the opportunity to stand and talk and raise their own profile. Boehner is pretty much guaranteed votes from the Democrats in the House who may want to pass a more permanent, bill but also want to avoid a shut down. The same could be said for the Senate. Would they really not pass a continuing resolution? The media will still pay a ton of attention to this issue, giving more and more airtime to different politicians in both parties. People will still donate to their campaigns. Boehner can keep his caucus in check by continually promising that it will be the next time that the Democrats will cave in.
ReplyDeleteI don't think this will happen because it strikes me as too sinister, too subject to something going wrong, and frankly requires the kind of speculative thinking that is easily punctured. But it does make me wonder a bit about the outcome of the budget/debt fights. It was supposed to be fixed in the intervening period but didn't and I don't see how this time is going to be any different this time around.
Government shutdown. And, if they can manage it, default.
ReplyDeleteWhy? Because this isn't, ultimately, about the ACA. The ACA is the vehicle not the point.
The bigger and more important point is negating a democratic election. Negating the will of the majority. The special interests pushing this are confident that they will not experience any significant or lasting harm from a government shut down or even a default -- any minor harm they might experience will be more than made up for by what they will win; the weakening of democratic power and government -- more specifically it's ability to respond to the needs, and protect the interests, of the broader public of workers and consumers. This isn't simply a blow against Obama -- this is a strike at the democratic power of the majority of working and middle class Americans, through economic blackmail engineered by a minority. For these interests the economic harm and loss of economic and political power that workers and consumers will experience from these developments is a plus.
Government shutdown and default, leaving us vulnerable to the zombie apocalypse. It really is the only thing left that could go wrong at this point.
ReplyDelete