Happy Birthday to Randy Quaid, 63.
Good stuff:
1. Ross Douthat mostly makes sense about the shutdown as party strategy.
2. Jim DeMint and Obamacare, from Lucia Graves.
3. Ezra Klein and Sarah Kliff have a monster ACA FAQ.
4. John Sides on, roughly, mandates and democracy.
5. Read Ed Kilgore's disagreement with me over Boehner.
5. And Stan Collender on why the shutdown will last at least a week. That's what I would think, with only one main alternative possibility: that Republicans already decided in advance that they wanted, for whatever reason, to get over the deadline before caving. As of now, we don't know what Boehner has been saying to the dozens of House Republicans who were unhappy about following Ted Cruz et al. over the cliff, and what they were saying to him. It is possible that for whatever reason they all felt caving after the deadline was better than at the last minute. However, barring that, I agree with Collender's logic. (And see also my column from last week, which I think had similar conclusions).
I think you're exactly right about Boehner. It isn't about Boehner no longer have 218 supporters; it's about there being 201 Republican votes to unify behind an alternative candidate. The folks who could get that kind of unity, like Cantor and Ryan, wouldn't want the job for the reasons you cite, and the people who would want the job, such as the tea partiers looking to cash in, wouldn't get 201 votes from the Republican caucus.
ReplyDeleteThe Republicans know that, in an open Speaker election, Pelosi would get 200 votes (or very close to it). They need more than that for their chosen candidate, and I don't think that's possible.
Hey JB, has the Speaker of the House ever been from the minority party?
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Champ_Clark
DeleteThere's also the tie broken by the Farm-Labor member in favor of the Dems in 1931.
Going back in time, before our two parties were as firmly established, they had some issues in the 1850s.
Thanks, Matt!
DeleteAs far as the procedure for replacing the speaker goes: Would there be a vote to remove Boehner? Or would there simply be a call for a new election for speaker, taking place while Boehner is still speaker? If it's the former, I could see Boehner being removed. But if someone else needs to win an election in order to get Boehner removed, that seems unlikely.
ReplyDeleteAs I understand it, a majority of the House needs to sign a petition saying that the office of Speaker of the House is vacant. Once that is received, and debate is had, there is a roll call vote for the new Speaker. If Republicans want to replace Boehner they will need a plan, including an alternate candidate.
DeletePlans have not been their strong suits, of late.
Delete