Sunday, December 5, 2010

Sunday Question for Conservatives

Ah, it's a holiday (Hanukah, that is), and we might as well have some fun.  Who do you think will be taking the oath of office as President of the United States on January 20, 2013?  Feel free to toss in a VP if you want. Who do you think will be Speaker of the House that year?  Majority Leader of the Senate? 


  1. I'm a moderate (meaning I think both extreme conservatism and extreme liberalism are bad ideas), and since you don't have Sunday Question for Moderates (which would be boring, I admit), I will answer here.

    I think it will be Barack Obama. Here's why: Last election went to the Democrats by a comfortable margin. Since that time, the Republican party has done nothing to expand its appeal. Instead, the GOP faithful have worked to cull out the RINOS and purify the party. In other words, they've taken a losing message and concentrated it. How does the losing party make up ground by narrowing its appeal?

    The only way this could work would be if Obama's popularity completely implodes. Conservatives will tell you that has happened, but I don't think so. His approval numbers are not terrible and people like most elements of his signature accomplishment (the health care proposal).

    The midterm elections will likely reinforce the purity movement on the Republican side (even though Joe Miller's and Sharon Angle's results should counsel otherwise). So while the GOP moves even farther to the right to appease the tea-party, Obama--like Clinton before him--will be forced to move to the center, which is the more popular place to be. A primary challenge from the left, if it happens, would only reinforce his image as a centrist.

    As a moderate, I could be swayed by a pragmatic Republican candidate, but I'll never vote for an anti-science fundamentalist who places 100% of the blame on the poor and sick for their own misfortune, which I expect is what we'll get from the GOP primary process in 2012.

    That recipe might work in a midterm election, but it will fail in 2012.

  2. I'm not a conservative or a moderate (though I might get labeled as the latter on places like Daily Kos), but I just wanted to pop in to say that Paul gave a very good answer.

  3. Obama. Most Americans remember the lousy economy under Bush. They also know what a waste the Iraq war has been. What is the current GOP platform? Tax cuts and a hawkish foreign policy.

    I think the tea party has hurt the GOP by focusing on trivial things like earmarks. The GOP should face the fact that supply side economics failed instead they back the same policies with new spokesmen. If the GOP blocks START then Obama will rightly be able to tar them as mindless warmongers.

  4. What a bunch of lousy conservatives.

    Pres: Romney--Economy won't recover, american people will want someone who has economic experience.
    VP: Pawlenty--Populist appeal and a swing state.

    Speaker: Boehner
    Maj Leader: McConnell--Dems have more seats to defend in 2012, and with the economy still bad... well, you get the picture. Democratic policies aren't working, and by 2012 the memories of Bush won't be as bad.

  5. John quite effectively makes the case for why Republicans won't work to make the economy better. More economic obstruction/destruction now for more power in 2012.

  6. "by 2012 the memories of Bush won't be as bad."

    Iraq will still be remembered as a stupid war. If Palin stays in the spotlight she will remind people of Bush's worst personality traits.

  7. How in the world in Romney going to get the nomination? "Romney Care," or whatever it was really called, has to be a deal breaker. There is no way the tea party is going to nominate a Mormon who once endorsed a plan so strikingly similar to "Obama Care."

    I think Obama will defeat Palin in 2012.

  8. >There is no way the tea party is going to nominate a Mormon of the big forces behind the TP is a Mormon.

  9. Kylopod: Maybe so, but that's one vote.

  10. My point is that if they're fans of Glenn Beck, why should they be bothered by Mitt's religion? Don't confuse the Tea Party with conservative evangelical voters. Both will have influence in the Republican primaries, and there is some overlap between the two, but they aren't one and the same.

  11. FWIW, as a recovering fundamentalist Christian, I can say with a certain degree of confidence that liking a Mormon and listening to his views is a world away from voting for him for POTUS. My quondam co-religionists have no problem with the former, but will easily balk at the latter.

  12. @Dan

    Fine. What I'm really objecting to is the idea that the Tea Party is a movement of evangelical Christians. I'm sure there are plenty of evangelicals within the movement, but what's important is what the powers-that-be that are behind the movement think. Romney is probably unacceptable to them, but not because of his religion. Sarah Palin herself mused about running for president with Beck on the ticket, and while she was clearly being facetious, I think a lot of Tea Partiers would rally around a Glenn Beck if he had the credentials to be a plausible candidate. I'd be interested to see a poll on this question.


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