Here's what I said:
I see that Orrin Hatch has declared himself a "no." I think I'll go out on a limb and make a prediction: 36 "no" votes, or five more than against Sonya Sotomayor. Republicans supporting Sotomayor were Alexander, Bond, Collins, Graham, Gregg, Lugar, Mel Martinez, Snowe, and Voinovich. Martinez is gone, with LeMieux and Brown added to the conference, so I'm saying that all 31 will stick, plus five of the group of ten will flip. And I'll say that the most likely flipper in the other direction, no on Sotomayor but yes on Kagan, is Bob Bennett.Nailed it! On the Republicans: Alexander, Bond, and Voinovich flipped, and LeMieux and Brown both voted no, so that makes 5 of 10, or exactly 36 "no" votes.
Well, I nailed it on the GOP. I totally didn't see the Benator coming. It's a logical vote. The Democrats didn't need him on this one, and they very well might next time around, so in his quest to be as centrist as possible it made sense to toss this vote the other way, making it easier for him to stick with the Dems if he's really needed on a future nomination. I'm not predicting how he'll vote if there's a next time, just saying that it's a rational act on his part -- or, to put it another way, I should have at least mentioned the possibility, and so that's a clear miss on my part.
I should also mention that (as usual) my speculation about LeMieux hasn't turned out to be worth anything. Also, the Scott Brown vote is interesting. He's mostly voted as a moderate, as if he was interested in re-election, but this vote doesn't fit that pattern at all. Is he concerned about renomination? I don't know.
Anyway, I'm now going to act insufferably pleased with myself for calling this one. To the extent I did. Thanks, Ben Nelson, for keeping my humble.