I'll trot out my own predictions, including the one that didn't pan out well. I thought the GOP would be a bit closer to a real movement towards impeachment by now...a bit over a year ago I predicted that someone in the GOP House conference would file a formal resolution sometimes this year (as a campaign stunt; obviously it wasn't going to go anywhere this year), and for fun I predicted Michele Bachman would do so on April 15. Wrong!
On the larger question of whether they would actually go through with it, I'm somewhere in the middle. I'll just quote what I said back in April of this year:
I do think that a Republican-controlled House has a very strong chance of impeaching Barack Obama -- not just filing charges, which any back-bencher can do, but actually going through with hearings, a committee vote, and a vote by the full House. I could probably come up with a formula for how likely I think it is...something like 10% chance per year that Obama is president and the GOP controls the House (so a 60% chance if they have six years of that situation), with a larger majority yielding higher odds for impeachment.So far, I'd say that the odds are somewhat lower in 2011 than when I wrote that, because we're another six months down the road without anything that looks like a scandal that mainstream Republicans are jumping on as a prelude to impeachment (yes, I saw this, but I don't think it qualifies). I think what I said back then can be thought of as an (extremely speculative) assessment of the structural situation, but that so far it doesn't appear that next year's 10% chance will pan out. Of course, it's also certainly possible that I'm just wrong, and that impeachment (without any real chance of conviction, that is) is unlikely as Jonah Goldberg seems to believe.
I will say one thing: if nothing better comes along, I'd expect a fundraising scandal coming out of the 2012 campaign (presuming, of course, that Obama wins reelection and that Republicans have a House majority in 2013). Money in politics scandals always play will with the non-partisan press, which holds that all campaign donations are inherently suspicious at best and, with very little of a nudge, probably corrupt, or at least have the appearance of corruption, which they count as pretty much the same thing. So if I was a GOP committee chair looking for a trumped-up scandal two years from now, I'd go with that.