Sunday, December 5, 2010
Sunday Question for Liberals
Same question as the question for conservatives; as I said, it's a holiday (Hanukah, that is), so this one is just for fun. Who do you think will be taking the oath of office as President of the United States on January 20, 2013? Feel free to toss in a VP if you want. Who do you think will be Speaker of the House that year? Majority Leader of the Senate?
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Barack Obama (re-elected with somewhere between his 2008 numbers and Bush's 2004 numbers)
ReplyDeleteJoe Biden
Harry Reid (But probably 51-49 or 50-50)
Eric Cantor (since it's just for fun)
Obama, Biden, Pelosi, Reid.
ReplyDelete(Not that I want the last one)
I think the economy will improve slightly by early 2012, and slightly-to-moderately by late 2012, and that'll be enough for Obama to win. There's also a non-zero chance that the GOP nominates Palin and that something besides the fundamentals matters.
Obama, Biden, Boehner, DeMint.
ReplyDeleteI just don't see how the Dems don't lose the Senate. DeMint will pull from the same bag of tricks as in 2010, and have another freshman class of teabaggers who owe him.
Barack
ReplyDeleteBiden
Schumer
Pelosi
Majority Leader: Waxman
Minority Leader: Cantor
Barack Obama
ReplyDeleteHillary Clinton (I don't believe for a second that she's done with electoral politics. Sorry.)
Harry Reid
John Boehner
I don't see the GOP moderating over the next two years; if their losses in 2006 and 2008 didn't humble them at all then I don't see why their big victory this year would. I suppose it's possible that they'll feel some responsibility to govern now but I'm skeptical. And so I'm fairly confident whoever they nominate in 2012 will pander to the base, and leave the middle for Obama.
I know Clinton has said she's not running in 2016 but it seems pretty clear to me that she's doing that to avoid undermining Obama. Obviously she's not going to come out six years before an election to say "i'm running". She might be a bit old by then but that didn't stop John McCain, and he was in much worse shape both politically and physically than she would be (presumably; things could very well change in 6 years).
Oh, and Happy Chanukah Jonathan!
Obama-Biden (I can't foresee any way Biden would be dropped, though the DC press corps clearly yearns for that drama); Pelosi; Reid.
ReplyDeleteWell, I'm no liberal. But I've been seriously thinking about the possibility that we are seeing a one-term presidency here. The GOP will continue to relentless diminish Obama, the economy isn't going to get any better, and the hapless, outplayed Dems don't have enough time to get their shit together and develop a winning strategy. I think the GOP will impose a winnable candidate on their party, everyone will fall into line, and it will be close to a landslide. Who that candidate will be, I don't have a clue.
ReplyDeleteGloomy. Very gloomy.
Obama, Boehner, DeMint. The Democrats will pick up seats in the House but it will take them another election or two to regain control. Meanwhile they have a lot of vulnerable seats to defend in the Senate and will lose control there.
ReplyDeletePresident: Sarah Palin
ReplyDeleteVice President: Glenn Beck
Speaker of the House: Michelle Bachmann
Senate Majority Leader: Joe Miller
Alright, you know I'm kidding. Call it a late Halloween special if you like, intended to spook everyone here.
There are numerous reasons, both historically and politically, that Obama's reelection, while far from guaranteed, is more likely than not. The public rarely throws a party out of the White House just four years after voting it in, and the only time this happened in the last 100 years--Carter's presidency--it involved a president who reached the office by a much narrower popular and electoral margin than Obama's.
Of course if Sarah Palin is nominated that will greatly increase the chances that Obama (or whoever the Democrats nominate) will win the general election. The Nevada Senate race this year should be instructive: that Sharron Angle was unable to defeat an unpopular Democratic incumbent in a Republican wave year suggests the great impact that candidate quality can have. I suspect Palin is the type of candidate who could defy all the political-science models and lose even in a year where by all accounts Republicans should win, such as if the country experiences a double-dip recession. Of course, many Republicans realize that by now, and they're going to try very hard to make sure she isn't nominated. But at this point they lack a strong alternative. Ordinarily, Romney would be a shoe-in, but Romneycare will make it difficult for him.
But whoever the Republicans do nominate will have to engage in hard-right rhetoric. All of the major candidates, even the "moderates" like Romney, are doing just that right now, and it will probably come back to haunt them in the general election. As McCain demonstrated in 2008, even a candidate who once had tremendous appeal to independents and moderates can easily squander that advantage.
President: Russ Feingold
ReplyDeleteVice President: Mike Bloomberg
Speaker: Henry Waxman
Majority Leader: Dianne Feinstein
Happy Hanukkah!
Obama, Biden, Boehner, Mitch McConnell.
ReplyDeleteIf I was betting I'd still put my money on Obama to win in 2012, in no small measure because there's a good chance the GOP will nominate a terrible candidate.
Some of the above comments that suggest Reid or Schumer will be the majority leader are incredibly optimistic. Even if the Dems have a pretty good cycle, they will almost certainly lose the Senate since they are defending more than twice as many seats as the Republicans are, including at least 5 or 6 incredibly vulnerable seats.
The Dems have a better chance to take the House back but if I had to guess I'd say they won't. The GOP will probably control congress.
Pres: Obama
ReplyDeleteVP: Clinton
Boehner
McConnell
Clinton to come in as VP in direct swap with Biden heading to Secretary of State. Think this probably suits all three parties involved.
Biden strikes me as the type of guy who would find 8 years in the relatively unchallenging VP role 4 years too many.
Clinton is about as ambitious as any politician in recent memory, so I take her comments regarding giving up on elective office with a sack full of salt. And the easiest way for her to finally get the top job is to pivot off a successful 2nd Obama term.
And finally, Obama. I like Biden a lot, but in raw vote getting terms he doesn't really offer anything extra to the ticket that Obama doesn't already have. Adding Hillary will help give a boost with some Dems who might have soured on Obama slightly by 2012, she obviously does well with women, and, most crucially, with working class white voters where Obama struggles the most. People a lot smarter than me must surely be thinking this over too. Obama is nothing if not a pragmatist.
Obama/Biden, Reid, Pelosi.
ReplyDeleteThe reasons Obama will probably (Though not definitely!) win a second term have already been listed. I say he sticks with Biden because he really doesn't like shaking up his strategy that much (Even when he maybe should). I'd say that goes double when it calls for shaking up his foreign policy strategy for mere electoral gain.
As for Reid, yeah, the Dems have a tough defense in the Senate, but holding more seats isn't the bottom line (look at the Republicans this year) and the polling that's come out so far (yeah, I know, but still) shows that none of the real vulnerable Dems are just getting blown out of their races. Plus, I'd say they have two real pick up opportunities right now.
Pelosi's the trickiest, and honestly, I might not put money on her right now. But I would point out that the Dems could get a third to a half of what they need for a majority again in IL and NY alone.