Lots of good stuff stacked up, so I'll get right to it:
1. WH 2012. Mark Blumenthal on why current polling numbers don't predict next November's results. Jared Bernstein isn't impressed with Herman Cain's grasp of quantitative methodology, while Conor Friedersdorf isn't impressed with Cain's book. Matt Yglesias makes the good point that Romney and Perry will be similar presidents in many ways.
2. Institutions! Rule 22 has a new series that everyone should be reading; here's an opening post from Nate Birkhead, and then Jordan Ragusa on stability. Also, an excellent primer on OMB vs. the White House from Andrew Rudalevige, Matthew Dickinson on Obama and Daley, and Matt Glassman on leading both Chambers.
3. Dick Cheney shouldn't be on TV, says Fred Kaplin; more Cheney-bashing from Andrew Sullivan.
4. Moving from tragedy to farce...Mark Penn bashing from Jonathan Chait, and more Penn-bashing from Ed Kilgore.
5. Brendan Nyhan fights pseudo-science the NYT.
6. I'd like more empirical support, but I do believe that Friedersdorf is right about the costs (to conservatives) of talking only to a narrow audience.
7. Adam Serwer on Ali Soufan; obvious must-read.
8. The causal arrow of beliefs and actions, from Mike Konzal.
9. Mal Reynolds! And a couple of baseball links -- Joe Posnanski on Bill James, and Mike Fast on catchers framing pitches.