Well, Obama has no realistic shot at winning the 2012 election. He began shedding Independents in the Spring of 2009, and they're pretty much a lost cause at this point, as he's not only started campaigning over a year early, but he's gone over to campaigning to the hard Left.I think that hard Left focus means it'll probably be impossible for Obama to say yes to any sort of reasonable budget agreement, similar to this entire year, meaning the Congress will write him off again, and will go off and craft whatever it is that does come through, with Obama tagging along behind stepping into "don't call my bluff" self destructive corrosives. In other words, he'll continue to erode his own base of support, while doing nothing to attract and expand upon that base.Reelection is impossible, if you're losing politically across the board. You have to choose a course and stick with it. This guy's rudderless frittering reminds me more of Carter every day. And it's particularly bad for this candidate, because he needs a massive turnout, and heartbroken hopey changey types won't give him that. Ignoring tax reform for 2 years, but then finally signing off on those Bush Tax Cut extensions last December was probably the dumbest set of political strategems I've seen in my lifetime. It was considered, long considered, and adopted, and carried through. It wasn't just a brief flash in the pan decision. It was policy, and policy adopted absent the necessary off ramps that good political strategy MUST have. Because once Obama caved on that, he not only demoralized his own base, he emboldened his opposition, who having rolled him, would never think to do otherwise from then on. Obama will give it up sweet, and they now know it. Obama has made plenty of mistakes, but these have been breathtakingly self destructive. It best exemplifies the rudderless frittering that so reminds us of 1980. It's always the incumbent's election to lose, and this guy has lost it.
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At The Washington Post
At The American Prospect