Thursday, December 29, 2011

Romney in Iowa

A bunch of bloggers ran posts this week about mistakes they made this year. I try to do that as I go along, and I had a big one recently, so instead...I'm going to be self-indulgent, and note one that I got right.

I have a post up at Plum Line arguing that Jon Huntsman's fate -- and the possible surge of Rick Santorum -- show again that serious presidential candidates really can't skip Iowa. Which reminds me that I've been saying more or less forever that Mitt Romney would, in fact, compete in Iowa.

Of course, there's the question of competing there, which is important, and then there's the question of where the candidates are going to spend the night on Tuesday, which...isn't. NBC's First Read is making much of Romney's plans to stick around in Des Moines and do post-Iowa interviews there, instead of from New Hampshire. I'm sure this seems important if you're the one coordinating the interviews, but in the real world it's hard to see how it matters at all. If Romney finishes 4th in Iowa, it's a big deal no matter how much he tries to downplay it; being on the scene won't make it any worse. And if he wins...well, being there won't change the importance of that, either.


  1. As Newt and Bachmann implode, I'm starting to suspect a result in Iowa like:

    Paul 24
    Santorum 21
    Perry 20
    Romney 20
    Gingrich 6
    Bachmann 4
    Huntsman 0

    Presumably, Bachmann and Newt quit. I'm guessing Santorum gets a bump, but I don't think he has the money to capitalize.

  2. Jonathan, you should have a pool. I'm going with:

    Paul 23
    Romney 19
    Santorum 17
    Gingrich 14
    Perry 12
    Bachmann 11
    Hunstman 4


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