Monday, January 9, 2012

Plum Line: What To Look For in New Hampshire

Over at Greg's place, I have a post up about what to look for in the New Hampshire results. Meanwhile, a new Suffolk tracking poll has come out showing Mitt Romney continuing to slip a bit...he's down to 33% in their sounding, although while it was released last that poll wasn't taken later than a couple of others, and it might be a bit of an outlier on Romney (just as PPP seems to be a bit of an outlier, on the high side, on Jon Huntsman). I have three main points over there; the third one is:
Do the Republicans have a New Hampshire problem? If Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Ron Paul combine to take 80% or more of the vote, will conservatives seek to reform the nominating process by attempting to punish that state? The biggest complaint about Iowa and New Hampshire as the kick-off states in recent cycles has come from Democrats who object to the lack of ethnic diversity in those states, but a far greater problem could be that on the GOP side, moderates are overrepresented.
Especially in an open primary, and especially with nothing doing on the Democratic side.

By the way, if you don't click through to my post, do be sure to read Brendan Nyhan on expectations, which I link to there. Really good.

1 comment:

  1. You made a typo in your piece.

    The biggest complaint about Iowa and New Hampshire as the kick-off states in recent cycles has come from Democrats who object to the lack of ethnic diversity in those states, but a far greater problem could be that on the GOP side, Yankees are overrepresented.

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