Do the Republicans have a New Hampshire problem? If Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, and Ron Paul combine to take 80% or more of the vote, will conservatives seek to reform the nominating process by attempting to punish that state? The biggest complaint about Iowa and New Hampshire as the kick-off states in recent cycles has come from Democrats who object to the lack of ethnic diversity in those states, but a far greater problem could be that on the GOP side, moderates are overrepresented.Especially in an open primary, and especially with nothing doing on the Democratic side.
By the way, if you don't click through to my post, do be sure to read Brendan Nyhan on expectations, which I link to there. Really good.