Sunday, November 4, 2012

Sunday Question for Everyone (2)

Not so much a question, but: okay, time for your election predictions. I'll take anything: the presidency, electoral college totals, a particular state, the national vote, how the Senate or House wind up, any particular Congressional, state, or local election...whatever you have, here's the spot for it.


  1. Obama wins with 303, includes OH, WI, NV, CO, VA, IA

    Senate 54 (including I-ME)

    House gain <5 for Dems

  2. My guess:

    Obama 294, Romney 244; Obama wins PV by about 1-1.5%. Obama gets VA and OH, but loses CO.

    Rasmussen suddenly has them even nationally, which tells me they swung their methodology so it's not completely offbase.

  3. Obama wins 277: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, but losing Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida. In popular vote, Obama wins by <1%.

  4. EV: Obama 294/Romney 244 (Obama loses CO, FL, NC, but wins OH & VA)
    PV: Obama 50.3/Romney 49.1
    Senate: GOP picks up seats in NE, ND, & MT. Dem pick-ups: MA, IN
    With King (I-D) in Maine, that means... zero net change!
    House: Dems +6 (including IA-4, where Steve King finally loses). GOP retains the House R236-D199
    Gubernatorial races: GOP picks up 2 in MT & NC. Dem pick-ups: Zero

  5. Obama 332, Romney 206.

  6. I am with anon. I like 332 to 206. It was my first prediction back in June, and so I am going to stick with it. Losing Florida to make it 303 is 235 is probably a little more likely.

    Pre-K for SA passes about 60-40. And at least two states approve same sex marriage by popular vote.

  7. I'm a dedicated pessimist when it comes to these things. I'm thinking 277-261 Obama at best, possibly even 271-267 Obama with a popular/electoral vote split.

    I'm thinking the Dems end up with about 53 seats in the Senate, and the House is essentially unchanged.

  8. U.S. House: Democrats gain more seats than predicted, but fail to take control, ending with about 200 seats.

    Minnesota: anti-gay-marriage amendment fails, Voter ID amendment wins a plurality, but there are enough ballots left blank that it fails to get a majority.

  9. What Jesse said.

    In my state, NH - Annie Kuster wins one of our congressional seats and Carol Shea-Porter barely loses the other one, leaving us one short of an all-female Congressional delegation. Maggie Hassan wins the race for governor. State Dems will nearly take back the state legislature, but they fall just short due to very aggressive gerrymandering by the Republicans last year.

  10. Obama wins. Obama appoints John Kerry as Secretary of State. MA has another epic Senate race: Deval Patrick vs. William Weld. Or perhaps Patrick will get his own appointment and leave our hapless homegrown Democrats to their own devices.

    In politics, everyone is always thinking several moves ahead.

  11. I'm leaning 277 with a popular vote loss due to millions of Sandy folks not voting.

  12. Oh yea of little faith. At least 330, 53 senate, gain 13 in the house.

  13. here are my predictions.

    Obama wins Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa.

    Dems maintain their senate majority at 52.

    Dems pick up 5 seats in the House.

    No one apologizes to Nate Silver.

  14. We won't know the results until Thursday (or even later) due to hand-counting paper ballots in parts of the east; and during the wait, Romney will hold the electoral lead.

    Obama for the win; over 300 EV; over 51% of the popular vote; but I think Latinos are under-represented in the polling, particularly in FL.

    Dems retain the Senate, picking up seats in MA, IN, and ME at the very least, and holding existing seats with the possible exception of Montana. Slight gains in the House; with a few unexpected losses by Tea Party candidates, but no enough to shock Republicans back to reality.

    Marriage equality is successful in two of the three states; and I hope mine is not the odd man out. And a mixed result on the marijuana initiatives, as well.

  15. I predict that a lot of people who were hearing from Fox News, just days ago, about Romney's likely 400-EV landslide will be wondering what could have gone so wrong. And to find out, they will turn to the one source they know they can trust: Fox News.

  16. Obama wins all the swing states except Florida and North Carolina.

    The result is pretty clear early on, and Romney concedes around midnight.

    Senate competitive winners:

    Republicans: Arizona, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota
    Democrats: Indiana, Missouri, Massachusetts, Ohio, Montana, Virginia, Wisconsin, Connecticut

    Very small net House movement in favor of Democrats.

    Some faux drama on the news about the New Jersey vote going for Romney early in the night due to Hurricane Sandy, but it ends up going blue in the end.

    Marijuana, 3 strikes, Maryland marriage all pass by good-sized margins.

    Christie gets crucified for no reason in the aftermath.

    1. Oh, and there will be some controversy caused by a lagging popular vote for Obama. He'll end up winning 51/49 of the two-party vote, but vote by mail and some weird counting in the East will create problems.

  17. If you give the swing states to the current leaders (per HuffPo), you get Obama 303, Romney 235. I'm gonna go Obama 285, Romney 253, with the change from HuffPo being Romney becoming the first Republican candidate since Nixon to win Ohio and lose the election.

  18. Here in Missouri, the Democrats will sweep all of the statewide seats, but Romney will carry the state by 8-10 points. Go figure.

  19. a good way to tell if you're a liberal is if you wanted to write that you're using Drew Linzer's model to say 332 electoral votes for Obama, but you hesitate because of how confidently the Romney campaign is howling (minus any data) that Rom is going to win by a landslide. What if they're right and liberals actually can never ever win?

    Someday I'll tell my kids about how, when I was a young man, us Democrats were always convinced that Republicans always won even when they lost. And my kids will say, "Dad, what's a Republican?"

    1. I just love this comment!

    2. As a Republican, I love itmore . The more delusional Democrats are about how they're simply going to *transcend* conservatism, the better.

  20. EC: 303-235
    Popular: Obama +3
    Senate: Dems pick up MA, IN, and ME, GOP picks up NE. Net D+2
    Wisconsin Senate: -1 Dem
    Wisconsin Assembly: +7 Dems

  21. Obama wins all the swing states, except NC. Also, I expect the Dems to take back the House. House vote totals tend to fairly correlated with the Presidential vote share (in this century).

  22. Obama wins 300+ electoral votes, loses the popular by 0.1%.

    Dems win 54 and pick up 22 in the House.

  23. I'll go out on a limb and say Obama carries FLA by a slim margin and wins Ohio by at least +6, as the latest Romney lie barrage falls flat. 330 EV looks attainable. Obama in the popular vote by +3.5%

    Sharrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren both win.

    Republicans will claim Romney lost because he is either not a true conservative or not conservative enough. Only one of these is correct.

    I will continue to be amazed that any decent, intelligent, educated human being would vote for him.

    For my ultra-long shot I'll say sometime in the next year Chris Christie completes his epiphany and changes parties.


    1. JzB -- CC will never ever consider switching parties. State-level partisan politics in NJ aren't quite as bizarre as in NYC (and to a lesser degree NYS) where it's "the Democrats" and "a disorganized coalition of people who are not part of the Democratic machine for various reasons" -- but it's along the same lines: ultra-local machines are affiliated with one party or the other but governed by one or two strong hands. Christie has always had the support of a couple of those county Dem machines, in his campaign (when they conspicuously sat on their hands in areas where GOTV could potentially have put Corzine ahead) and in the legislative theater (his coalition is the Republicans, plus the Democrats from two specific counties). And this way he gets to be Always Bipartisan, a good starting point in a state like Jersey that's very Democratic at the national level but swingy and indie at state level.

      (and yes, all this information does come in one way or another from Steve Kornacki, why do you ask? ;) )

  24. Interesting that so many here are as bullish on Obama in the battleground states as I am. I worry about voter suppression in Fla, Ohio and Colorado, but hope it will be successful in just one of them, if at all. Actually I feel pretty confident about Obama in Iowa, VA, CO and Ohio.

  25. Ok, third party:

    Johnson: .46%
    Stein: .43%

    Ron Paul will probably get at least 100,000 votes, although it seems that most states won't count them.

  26. Why are there no middle of the road candidates or news stations? Why don't we go to a national sales tax with no taxes on the basic necessities of life, it would catch all the drug dealers, illegal aliens, and abusers of the current system. I see entire families on the government dole that work for cash under the table and sell their pills on the side living better than a lot of people that work for a living, and people that really need it have trouble getting government help.

  27. Obama 332 EV, 2.5% on EV, 54 senators, and a handful of congressional gains.

    I believe the cell phone, minorities undercounted meme and that some people want to vote for the winner and the press has been great for the POTUS in past 10 days.

    Early vote does not show the run up in confederate, Mormon, John Birch states that every one is predicting. And past two elections show big blue states except NY & NJ, thus small Sandy effect, over perform in voter turnout compared to red states.

    Here in California, I think he will get a high percentage of the vote. As to our propositions, death penalty will be overturned, prop 30 may squeak by. Prop 32 will fail because we have a misinformed electorate. And prop 37, food labeling, will narrowly fail.

  28. Like most, I'm going with conventional leads in polls.

    Obama - 303
    Romney - 235
    Obama + 2 PV (50-48)

    Senate: 54D-46R (with Angus King as a D). Democrats pick-up MA, ME, IN and lose NE and ND.

    House: Dems gain 13 seats.


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