Republicans have made steady progress in 2010 Congressional races over the last couple of months. I haven't run a Cook number lately, but it's still lopsided in favor of Republicans. Of the twenty five most recent changes to Cook ratings, all but two are in the GOP's direction, and one of those, the Delaware At Large House district, is only moving to the Dems because of the major Republican recruiting success of enticing Mike Castle to run for Senate.
Since Obama's approval ratings have been stable for a couple of months, now, it wouldn't be surprising to see a few things swing the other way, and there's a bit of that in the news this week.
1. The Democrats could well pick up a House seat in the NY-23 special, with the key plot there the refusal of conservatives to support the GOP nominee.
2. Beau Biden is polling well, and appears to be running, against Castle; I think that Biden is a slight favorite here, although obviously it's a very, very competitive seat that could break either way.
3. Sullivan notes that Democrats have reopened a five point edge in pollster.com's summary of 2010 generic ballot polling.
4. Is Crist in trouble in the primary in Florida? As with the NY-23 race, this is again a test of whether the GOP can manage to nominate and support it's own strongest candidates, or if conservatives are still hell-bent on keeping the party in the ditch.
5. Looks like Jodi Rell may be retiring, helping to complete the realignment in New England statehouses.
6. And what I think is the biggest election news of the week: Chuck Grassley may have a race on his hands. Christie Vilsack isn't quite as big a recruiting coup as Castle was in Delaware, but Cook currently has this one as safe Republican, and I think Vilsack's entry would move it to at least Likely, and maybe even Lean. Although I have to admit that I'm the wrong person to comment on this one; I can't begin to understand what Iowans see in Chuck Grassley.
Now, I don't want to imply that things in general are heading the Democrats' way right now, but unlike a month ago, there's movement in both directions.