Toast, Defined

Ouch. I don't think I've ever seen an incumbent (via Goddard) polling 60 points behind for an upcoming election -- even worse, really, 60 points behind for a primary. That's David Paterson's situation now. As always, you can never really tell what's in the mind of any particular pol when they decide whether to run for not, but my guess is that Paterson will soon be hearing the call of Family Reasons for not seeking a full term. I'll be surprised if he goes through with the shellacking he's in for if he runs.

Speaking of which, I'll be even more surprised if Rudy Giuliani winds up running. Siena has Andrew Cuomo solidly beating him in a general election, and while it's not an insurmountable lead, no one has ever lost money betting against anyone taking the leap from NYC Mayor to NY Governor, and I see no reason to expect that to change. Giuliani, it seems to me, has plenty to lose here; no one holds it against you if you fail to win the presidency, but his reputation would take a real hit if he gets clobbered in a gubernatorial contest. He'd be a two-time loser, and he'd also have to do plenty of back-flips and other complex maneuvers to square his old issue positions with his presidential campaign positions, and then again with the things he'd have to say to stand a chance first in the primary, and then in November. He's mostly so far retained his 9/11 aura, but there's a good chance he'd lose a large part of it if he makes this campaign and loses.