Inspired by my twitter feed going wild with glee from conservatives after the first day of the Gallup general election tracking showed Mitt Romney with a two point lead (sparking junk analysis like this), a couple hours later by a CNN poll showing Obama up by nine points....
We actually in principle know far more now because we have fifty gazillion polls -- without which the very useful polling averages would be impossible. And yet not only is each individual poll just as meaningless as it was when it was just Gallup and Harris and maybe a couple of others, all of them only once a month or less, but the odds of having at least one weird outlier a month go way up, and even more so the odds of some goofy internal splits showing up go way, way up. It's gonna happen: we're going to get some poll that says that African-Americans in the south are suddenly swinging away from Obama, or that LDS members in the West have suddenly tilted away from Romney, and everyone is going to freak out until it eventually turns out that it was just a fluke of one poll.
Which we'll only know because there will be a dozen more polls out there in the next couple of weeks showing that the first one was off base.
I know I talk about this stuff all the time, and most of the regular readers here are probably sick of it, but as long as it continues to be a major issue in how campaigns are (mis-) reported, I'm going to keep repeating it.