The takeaway seems to be that after a hearing for nominee Patricia Millett in which Republicans focused on their bogus "court packing" story, Pillard has emerged as the main target, with lots of hot-button issues in her writings for them to attack.
So here's what's going to happen, apparently. For Millett and for U.S. District Judge Robert Wilkins, the third nominee, we'll get lots of harumphing about workload in the DC Circuit court, and hard-liners will oppose cloture on that basis...but they'll fall short, perhaps by half a dozen votes. Both will be confirmed. Pillard, however, will have serious opposition, and it's probably more likely than not that she'll be killed by filibuster.
That's all still speculative, but I it fits the situation. I very much doubt that Democrats are going to go nuclear over a single judicial nominee, especially if she's opposed on the merits (whether reasonable or not). If, however, Republicans really went along with Chuck Grassley's "court packing" nonsense and blockaded one or more spots on the DC bench...well, that would be a much bigger deal. As it is, a successful filibuster kill of the Pillard nomination along with two confirmations would mean that half of Obama's DC Circuit nominees this year were obstructed -- but Republicans can counter that the overall appeals court confirmation rate is far higher, and then confirm the next replacement.
Again, that's speculative. Perhaps Pillard will squeak through. Perhaps a more intense opposition will develop to one of the others.
But I'm fairly confident that none of them will be blocked on "court packing" alone, which means that there's no (admitted) blockade of these seats, and therefore no real need for Democrats to go nuclear on judicial nominations. At least I don't think that an occasional circuit court filibuster kill is the kind of obstruction significant enough in practice to overcome Senatorial reluctance to lose the filibuster, nor do I think it's significant enough in theory, for that matter.
So far. We'll have to just see what comes next.