Sunday, July 28, 2013

Sunday Question for Liberals

One year from today:

How is "Obamacare" polling?

How do experts believe ACA implementation is going?

How is health care playing in competitive 2014 elections?


  1. 1. "Obamacare" polls mostly the same as today. Though the actual insurance reforms amd coverage expansion will be popular, not sure ppl will associate that with the ACA/give it credit even if they do.
    2. Experts probably determine ACA implemented great instates that cooperated, less well with states that didn't. Overall though I'm optimistic that implementation will be OK.
    3. I'd see Republicans trying to make it an issue and Democrats successfully deflecting. Honestly I can't see it making an impact one way or the other. Would love to be proven wrong and see some Dems campaign for a public option but there's just no indication of that happening. Maybe we have to wait a few yrs after ACA's been running?

  2. 1. "Obamacare" is polling roughly the same as it is today. People are only vaguely aware that is has come into effect and they are benefiting from it.

    2. Experts think Obamacare implementation is going pretty well under the circumstances. It has certainly exceeded expectations, which were set incredibly low.

    3. It's roughly a neutral issue. Republicans can gain advantage by stating their opposition to unpopular "Obamacare" and the law's cutting of Medicare funding, while Democrats gain advantage by touting popular features of the program (children staying on parents' plans until 26, free preventative care, banning discrimination against people with preexisting health conditions).

  3. My guess is that polls vary widely and pollsters are able to get pretty much what answers they want depending on framing and wording of questions and the amount of partisan signaling involved in the survey. Analysts are even more able to draw the lessons they want from the polls. Still, when everything is put in the great data stew and boiled down, it will turn out that most people don't notice much of anything and have only vague and hazy ideas about the law; people will express support for guaranteed issue, subsidies, exchanges, and perhaps Medicaid expansion; people will say they don't like bureaucratic hassles and mandates; everyone will still kvetch about waste and prices.

  4. Much depends on whether the costs of Obamacare outstrip the revenue dedicated to it. In Massachusetts, Romneycare didn't break the bank, but the costs could have been hidden. On a national scale, that will be harder to do.

    1. Hmmmm. I'm not sure I'd agree with that. It's true there will be much more scrutiny on the national stage, but the national financial picture is also correspondingly much more complex than that of MA, and the ACA much more complex than Romneycare. As was shown in Maryland over the weekend, it isn't even very easy or uncontroversial to see if a perfectly straightforward list of approved prices represents an increase or a decrease in premiums, and this in a state where the ACA will enjoy one of its smoothest and least bumpy rollouts. I strongly suspect that this time next year there will be GOP analysts roaring about the ACA breaking the bank, Democratic analysts roaring about victory, neutral analysts wearily explaining that it really is all so very complicated, and most of the public just not paying much attention at all, and when they do they will just go with whatever talking points they get from their usual sources. I'm also not sure that people's ideas about costs will have all that much to do with their support for the various components of the ACA. After all, people will readily tell you that the government is going broke, and then when asked what they want to cut or eliminate, can't muster a majority to eliminate or cut a single thing.

  5. I bet that Obamacare polls generally the same, especially approaching the election as partisans increase loyalty to their respective "team." It looks like the law will work fine, based on reports of its progress so far so I'm not inclined to think experts will be saying anything different.

    I don't think the issue will have much impact either way in the election. I bet that the major issues are going to focus on spending cuts, and I also bet that state-level Republican parties are going to be extremely unpopular and that that will create a serious drag on all GOP candidates.

    Generally I expect the Democrats are going to do fine next year, and that Obamacare isn't going to be an issue either hurting or helping the party.

  6. What people neglect to note is that when Obamacare is polled, roughly the same percentage disapprove because it doesn't go far enough as disapprove because it goes "too far." So yes, I agree, it will probably poll pretty much the same in a year.

    Because smooth implementation is not a news story and any glitch will be, as far as reporting goes, implementation will seem rough. Whether it will be or not,no one knows. Most signs right now are positive.

    Effect on elections will be positive, as they were in 2012. Obamacare is very popular with Latinos, African Americans, women and young voters. They may not vote in the same proportions in 2014, but if Republicans continue on their present course, they will vote in higher proportions and numbers than in 2010. So soothily say I.


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