Wednesday, November 3, 2010

One Precinct Still Out

I figured I should post something before I went to sleep (not quite yet...still awful curious about several outstanding House, Senate, and Gubernatorial contests). I'm not going to say much at this instincts, as usual (and I think shared -- I don't see much posted on many of the political scientist blogs tonight) is to wait until all the numbers are in.  I'd rather be slow than say foolish things.  So I'll just make a couple quick comments, or mention a few questions, and then I'll be back for more in the morning.

1.  First of all, a very impressive victory for the GOP in the House, and generally across the nation.  A great night for the Republicans.

2.  The obvious first impression is going to be that poor candidates cost the Republicans dearly in a handful of crucial high-profile statewide races: for Senate in CT, CA, NV, DE, CA and perhaps CO; for Governor in CA, perhaps in FL, and in some other states.  That may be true; in fact I suspect it is true.  The one race that the TV folks didn't seem to make a fuss about that I would is NH-Sen, in which Kelly Ayotte barely survived as the moderate or mainstream candidate in the primary and then romped over a seemingly solid candidate by a whopping 25 points, more or less.  On the other hand, quite a few seemingly weak GOP candidates won.  We'll need to look at these more carefully before drawing any firm conclusions.

3.  Meanwhile, what about the House?  We've had some evidence about the challengers and open seat candidates there; now, with the results (mostly) in, it's going to be time to see what exactly happened.  Were flaky House candidates able to survive because of the media environment?  Were there fewer flaky House candidates, and if so, why?  

4.  One thing that was posted today that I want to repeat was from John Sides, who cautions us about relying on straightforward interpretations of exit poll questions about why people voted the way they did.  I'd add to be cautious about anything from exit polls.  They're nice to have, but they're notoriously hard to get thing to recall is that even the basic demographic data will be adjusted once the actual vote totals are known.

I'm sure I have plenty more, but it's getting late.  Congratulations to all the winners, and plenty more analysis once I've had a little sleep.

1 comment:

  1. One thing you don't get from exit polling, why people stayed home and didn't vote.


Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

Who links to my website?