Sunday, September 15, 2013

Sunday Question for Conservatives

I don't think I've asked this one: do you think there's any realistic chance that Republicans can win significant concessions on Obamacare, either on the CR or on the debt limit?


  1. I suppose there's always a chance that if they allow the country to default they could get some sort of concession as a price to attempt to put things back in order. But that's not really realistic (or good policy).

    So a shorter answer would be: No.

  2. Probably on the continuing resolution yes. The Democrats have proven themselves willing to negotiate over pretty much everything, and the budget seems like the most likely place for that to happen.

  3. There is virtually no chance of getting concessions on Obamacare, it is the signature achievement of the Obama Administration and the Democratic Congress of 2009-10, and they won't concede anything on that. There is a chance to obtain concessions on other things, including small changes to Social Security that generate significant savings over the next 30 years. Congressional Republicans should try to limit the growth of entitlement spending in the budget negotiations, since changing Obamacare in any significant way is not going to happen.

  4. No, the Republicans can't win concessions. I think that's not the point of all this, either the CR side or the votes to repeal - as the most recent Anonymous said, it's Obama's signature domestic effort, and there's just no way he'd amend it, especially for just another chapter in these ongoing battles.

    I don't think the point of the Republican antics is to win concessions. Look, there's roughly three ways Obamacare can go: as advertised, huge success, and huge failure. If it goes as advertised, that will be a mild net win for the left's agenda (with the pluses of coverage offset by the minus of taxes and anything else onerous to the former "haves"). If its a huge success, that will be a huge win for the left. In either case, no one will remember the Republican antics around repeal or this fall's CR.

    If its a big failure, depending on the particulars, the Great Society itself might be in trouble. In that moment of terrible disappointment, Republican anti-ACA efforts will come in very handy - as they will make the case to the disillusioned that they've been with you all along. Should things play out negatively for the ACA, that argument from the Republicans will really hunt.

    In other words, Republican shenanigans against the ACA aren't really to stop the ACA: they're what the finance guys would call a real option. If the Democrats win with this, they win, and no one will much care or remember what the Republicans did here.

    But if the Democrats lose, Republican antics may set the stage for the Democrats losing big.

    That's pretty much the story here, it seems to me.

    1. So, let's think about this a moment.

      1. The Republicans are making a huge amount of noise about Obamacare.

      2. Fox News is making a huge amount of noise about the horrible nature of Obamacare.

      3. I just emailed my fifty-something sister in MO a link to the Kaiser insurance rate calculator. With Obamacare, she can sign up for independent insurance for $200 a month instead of the $1000 she's paying now for her husband with heart disease.

      And your conclusion is that no one will remember what the Republicans are saying?

      You really think my sister is going to "forget" that her favorite channel, Fox News, lied to her about how much her insurance would cost?


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