Yeah, I'm still not seeing anything to change my mind that she's not likely at all to be the nominee. The latest is that she's polling well in Iowa, leading the normally very sensible Scott Lemieux to say that "Bachmann...has to be considered an overwhelming favorite in Iowa right now."
I'm sorry, but no, I don't think she has to be considered any type of favorite in Iowa right now.
Look, she got a nice bump coming out of a debate, and in the absence of any other news out there, she's polling well. You know who else did that, a few months ago? Donald Trump. It just doesn't mean very much.
Obviously, Bachmann is a more serious candidate than Trump ever was -- for one thing, she's actually running; for another, she doesn't have a history of policy positions anathema to GOP primary voters. But that's sort of the point: is Trump can surge in the polls at this point, then anyone can.
I'm open to the possibility that I'm dead wrong about Bachmann, but her current surge in the polls isn't doing much to convince me. We have a long ways to go, and so far I don't see her overcoming the things that made her an implausible nominee a few months ago.