The proposal could not pass the House today, but then I don’t think any debt limit proposal could pass the House today.That's from someone who probably has a pretty good sense of what House Republicans are thinking. It sounds right to me, although of course it might not be true -- it may be that lots of people are just bluffing (in which case it may be technically correct that no proposal could pass the House "today", but there are proposals that would pass if we were at a deadline).
Still, if it's correct in the stronger sense that there really is nothing that could pass the House, then we have to pair that with the other part of it: sooner or later, some debt limit increase will pass the House.
Which means either that there's some possible proposal that no one has thought of...or, more likely, that something will change. And I continue to agree with those who say that the latter is the best read of the situation -- and that "something" means an external shock of some kind.
What's really not clear, to me at least (and I'd love to know what Hennessey would say about this) is how many House Republicans would respond to a sudden shock -- say, an awful day on Wall Street. What I'm mostly getting from House Republicans is that every time an external source says that the debt limit has to be raised (or even eliminated), what Tea Partiers hear is spending on programs they don't like has to be cut. What worries me is that if that's the case, then perhaps external shocks won't help, if House Republicans interpret them as just confirming their current position. I don't think that's true about the House GOP leadership, but if it's true for up to half of the GOP Members, well, that's a pretty big problem.