I have no idea. Neither do you. Neither does, most likely, anyone else who is talking about it right now. There's even an excellent chance that the participants in the discussions don't know.
There simply is no way to tell, while negotiations continue, what is posturing and what is real, what is a bluff and what is someone's bottom line. Of course, advocates shouldn't just sit back and wait to see what happens; they should, well, be advocating, as best they can. So if something is floated in the news, it usually makes sense for advocates to treat it as a trial balloon -- and if they don't like it, shoot it down as strongly as they can. But that doesn't tell us anything about whether the original report was something that's a done deal, something that was in fact a real trial balloon, or even something that reporters just got wrong.
So just remember the basics: at some point, and unless the president invokes the 14th Amendment, the debt limit will be raised, and that will require a majority in the House and at least a majority, and most likely 60 votes, in the Senate, along with the president's signature. At some point, there will be appropriations passed, again by both Houses of Congress and the president's signature, for FY 2012 spending. What will accompany those things in order for them to get those votes -- we don't know. But any deal you hear about will need to get them, and so if it seems that the supposed deal is unlikely to get, say, to 218 in the House, it's probably not going to happen.