But fortunately, I get to instead write a "called it" post: Johnny Damon was designated for assignment today, which doesn't completely kill off his chances of getting to 3000, but it sure doesn't look good, does it?
I should say: I have nothing against Johnny Damon. He's had a good career. He's not a Hall of Famer, and I really like the way that 3000 hits seems to be just beyond the reach of guys who aren't good enough to be HOFers. Except that Lou Brock made it, I suppose, but normally it just doesn't happen.
I suppose the next guy on that list is Michael Young. Interesting case: he's done quite well on the Bill James HOF monitor -- he's at 120, and this is only his age 35 season. And of course he has a ton of hits. But he's really not a HOF-quality player, at least not unless he has amazing (and even before this year quite unexpected) longevity. Quite a good player, but not HOF-level.
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Young has absolutely cratered this year. He's never been a good defensive player, but has managed to make up for that with a great bat. But his wRC+ this year is 66. This is like having Omar Vizquel as your DH/1B.
ReplyDeleteBut even if he managed to hold on for another 3-4 years of ~110 wRC+ and then sneak past 3000 hits with some part-time years after that, Id seriously hope the voters wouldn't reward him with a trip to the Hall. I'd like to think we're reaching a point where voters evaluate the complete picture, including defense, instead of just looking at top line hitting stats.
A more interesting case for 3k hits to me is Young's teammate Adrian Beltre. He has a similar number of hits as young and is 3 years younger. He also plays premium defense that should give him some role on a team for a longer time, even as some of his skills decline.