Saturday, October 19, 2013

What Mattered This Week?

I'll be boring and just go with the end of the shutdown, along with the end of the debt limit threat.

Not sure what I have that didn't matter...I suppose I don't really think that the specific votes among mainstream Republicans on ending the shutdown mattered all that much. That is, it mattered a lot that it ended, but it's relatively unlikely that anyone will draw a primary (or a more significant primary) only because of a "yes" vote, or take a hit in the general because of a "no" vote, all else equal. It's possible, but unlikely.

That's what I have, but there was a lot going on. What did you notice? What do you think mattered this week?


  1. I agree with you about the general election, but am not so sure about the primaries, which are much nearer in time to the vote. After all, some potential Tea Party candidates are making up their minds whether or not to run right about now. (Of course that may be true of some potential Democratic candidates as well, but they will probably not be deterred by a Republican voting "Yes" on the final surrender; they will attack the Republican for voting in effect to shut down the government to begin with.)

  2. Obamacare website woes seem to be getting better, that certainly matter. I've read reporting that is all over the map on this, but for what its worth I was able to set up my account on the Minnesota state based exchange in about half and hour.

    According to Netanyahu there are all sort of rumblings going on in Iran, I don't really believe much of what he says anymore but the dynamic of Israel increasingly isolated in it's hawkish stance towards Iran probably matters.

    1. I think it's been acknowledged that some of the state ones are working OK. That's not really the issue.

    2. I've seen some stuff from local media claiming the our state based system is failing etc.

    3. Here in Maine, where our beloved 38% governor refused to set up exchanges, I've only been able to get a log-on. When I try to log in, it just gives me an authentication URL and white screen.

      If this is typical of what's happening, I'd guess the problems are those you'd expect in states that did their part of the job, and nada for the state's where the tea party-led governors and legislatures obstructed.

  3. It will be interesting to see if what Tailgunner Ted did this week--and continues doing-- will matter for 2016. Which also means whether the current conflict and virtual chaos in the R party will matter by then. I can see the possibility, however small, of a LBJ-Goldwater rematch in 2016, i.e. Hillary v. Tailgunner Ted.

  4. I think the website woes for Obamacare are actually pretty significant. The counterargument is that the scope of the rollout makes problems inevitable, they will get fixed, and the sign-ups have been decent so far, in spite of the problems. Surely.

    Wondering what the average actuarial rating is on those early sign-ups. We might expect those with pre-existing conditions, unable to get insurance elsewhere, would walk through fire or hot coals or endless white screens to sign up. The young healthies, whose motivation is suspect at best, should be more easily offput by the myriad bugs.

    To the extent that the ACA stands or falls largely on the willingness of young healthies to take their actuarial medicine and sign up, the website troubles are potentially a pretty big problem for the rollout of the ACA.


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