Yes, I'm aware it's not exactly Friday.
So the Giants won today -- woo! -- and moved to only 3 back of the Dodgers, and one behind the Fish and the Mets for both of the WC spots.
Which brings up two things, only one of which is that I really do hate the Dodgers. The other is: why aren't baseball fans supposed to notice the race for the WC until July or August, somewhere in there? I mean, I do absorb a fair amount of baseball information, and you'll just never hear the WC standings until after the All Star break at best...I don't listen to the broadcasters for other teams all that often, but certainly the Giants broadcasters aren't mentioning anything about it at this point, and we are now in June. And I've heard multiple times that it's "too early" to think about the WC. Why?
I don't get the sense that other sports have that taboo. The WC has been around for almost two decades now; you would think that people would start treating it as a real part of the season, no? But I don't think they do. Am I wrong about that? And if I'm right, is it just tradition? It totally puzzles me.
Monday, June 4, 2012
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Does looking at the WC standings now, have any more statistical significance than looking at state-level polling to predict the Electoral College?
ReplyDeleteBecause there are a ton of games left to be played and standings can change around in a hurry. Plus every year there are a few teams that start off strongly and everybody thinks this is the year they break out and make the playoffs only to see them fade in the 2nd half. Looking at today's standings, the Orioles, Indians, and Mets are prime candidates for that. Then there are every year a few teams that struggle out of the gates but turn it on later in the year. Detroit, Philadelphia, and Arizona are likely candidates for that.
ReplyDeleteIn the NBA also, you can't pay much attention to the playoff standings until after the All Star Game. In the NFL, you can start much earlier because there are simply fewer games and teams that start out 0-4 or 4-0 are highly likely to miss or make the playoffs respectively.
But that's also true, isn't it, of the division standings, and no one ignores the division race after the first week or so of the season.
DeleteIs it true that in the NBA no one pays attention to the cut line on the playoffs until the halfway mark?
Its my impression that partisans in the 16-team playoff leagues (NBA, NHL) don't talk about the playoff cut line until very late in the season.
DeleteSo if its December and the Maple Leafs are currently in 6th place in the Eastern Conference, their long-suffering fans won't be relieved that they're on track to make the playoffs. They'll instead focus on what the team needs to do to win their division and have a better chance in the playoffs (though with an 8-seed playing a 6-seed for the Cup, its not clear what "better shot" means).
OTOH, if its mid-March and the Leafs are 2 points out of the last playoff spot, then yes just making it into the tournament will be the entire focus of the fan base.
Perhaps it is because no team, and no fan, defines the team's goal at the beginning of the year as "making the wild card." The goal is always to win the pennant. The wild card is not a goal; it is what teams settle for if they can't win the pennant.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, pennant races often come down to a head-to-head battle on the last weekend of the season, whereas wild card races seldom do.
Finally, there is the fact that the wild card, despite its 20-year antiquity, is nonetheless an abomination unto the Lord. See, e.g., the Ramon Martinez line here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN199609290.shtml
I think the key is that baseball is not naturally built for playoffs the way football or basketball or hockey or soccer are. The standard deviation on a team's win probability is just too high to make the playoffs anything but a crapshoot; this is why they need 162 games to separate teams.
ReplyDeleteI think this has always been generally accepted; few people, for instance, believed in 1950 that the World Series was somehow a definitive statement of which team was better that year. It was more like a bonus series that crowned a champion.
This attitude is reflected in the way many people used to (and many still do) watch baseball; you don't need to be in a pennant race to fully enjoy an August baseball game. And while that's technically true in any sport, it's a lot more true in baseball.
Baseball's attempt to build a NBA or NFL style playoff system is totally understandable, and it's a lot of fun to watch loads of October baseball. But it's hardly the same thing as the NFL playoffs. And I think most people sense that as it is happening.
It's a whole lot easier to make up ground when you're playing my Cubs. Enjoy it for one more day.
ReplyDeleteThe wild card standings are way too fluid to tell you much at this point. The cast of characters in the wild card race in August might be completely different from what you see today.
It makes much more sense at this point in the season to pay attention to your record than to your place in the wild card chase. If you win 88 to 90 games, you'll have a good shot at the wild card.
And remember that this year there are two wild card teams in each league, and they will play a 1 game playoff to reach the "real" playoffs. There's a nice bit of Seligism for you to chew on.
But if it makes you feel better, the Giants are 1 game out of the wild card right now. The Cubs are only 12.5 games out. Watch out!
The division race is also subject to what you do against the team ahead/behind you, a team you will almost assuredly have numerous games against remaining, while the records of the WC competition may be completely beyond your control already at this point of the season because of the unbalanced schedule.
ReplyDeleteThe division race is also subject to what you do against the team ahead/behind you, a team you will almost assuredly have numerous games against remaining, while the records of the WC competition may be completely beyond your control already at this point of the season because of the unbalanced schedule.
ReplyDeleteThe division race is also subject to what you do against the team ahead/behind you, a team you will almost assuredly have numerous games against remaining, while the records of the WC competition may be completely beyond your control already at this point of the season because of the unbalanced schedule.
ReplyDeleteI'm so sure of that theory I felt it required 3 postings. Sorry. Stupid phone.
ReplyDelete