At Greg's place today, I noted that with his convention bump Barack Obama remains basically just a tick behind George W. Bush at this point in 2004 in approval ratings -- which is where he's been since April. Good perspective, in my view, both for Republicans who can't understand why they aren't winning and for Democrats who mistake a convention bounce for something more.
Speaking of which, at PP I took a shot at explaining why many Republicans are baffled by the situation -- why, with the economy how it is, Mitt Romney isn't crushing Obama. Two explanations: they tend to ignore political scientists, and they think the economy is worse than it is.
Unfortunately, the Gallup numbers I discuss there reveal that my wild guess, fun-but-almost-certainly-wrong theory of why Gallup's economic index spiked up was in fact wrong (if you missed it: the theory was that all those successful "built it" businesspeople convinced voters that the economy was okay after all). The spike came from independents and Democrats, not from the Republicans who were watching the show from Tampa. Oh well.