At Greg's place, I look at how Barack Obama's approval ratings continue to track George W. Bush's from 2004...but just a bit behind.
And at PP, I argue that Tea Party primary challenges from 2010 are costing the GOP in Senate races in 2012 -- and that they'll continue to do so down the road. I've run this point out before, but I continue to think it's potentially a very big deal indeed. As I say over there, I have no idea whether there's been any effect lower on the ballot; I'd be very interested if anyone has any data on GOP quality candidates (that is, previously elected to office) in this year's House races, or even any good anecdotal stuff about how recruiting went for them in this cycle. The other part of this is whether there were enough Tea Party upsets in primaries this year at the House level (or elsewhere) to scare off good GOP candidates next time around. Note that not every Tea Party win works that way, of course, since plenty of Tea Party backed candidates also have conventional credentials, or defeat weak primary opponents. But when a seemingly weak "outsider" defeats a heavily recruited mainstream conservative in a primary...that's where the effect should come from.