Another day with lots of excellent choices, but I'm going with a Happy Birthday to Cynthia Stevenson, 50. I've seen a remarkably high percentage of everything she did up through about 12 years ago or so, but alas little or nothing since then. Mostly because of her terrific Doris, Norm's secretary. But I had forgotten: she was also in a Max Headroom! I really need to go back and watch that show again. Poking around...how about a short from 1991 that looks not very good at all, but in which not only does she play "Perky Girl" (awesome), but Lisa Kudrow plays "Friend of Perky Girl."
How about an extra-large helping of good stuff:
1. The Hibbs model speaks: Douglas Hibbs has Obama losing solidly this November, getting only 47.5% of the two-party vote. Two notes: this is one of the models with a very strong track record; however, it does not take into account two factors that some other models include which would play for Obama, namely the terrible economy in 2009 and that Obama was preceded by a Republican.
2. Nice Sean Trende piece about how not to argue against polls that don't show up the way you want (in particular, on the issue of party ID). For what it's worth, I'm probably more skeptical than he is about the Q polls he's discussing...as usual, the advice is to look at averages, not single polls.
3. See also an excellent Harry Enten item about a similar topic. My advice? You know it: averages, not single polls. Oh, and multiple averages, if you have the time.
4. Did you know that Barack Obama is running ads criticizing Mitt Romney for advocating more military spending? Greg Sargent noticed, and has interesting things to say about it.
5. Nice Ed Kilgore post about Ted Cruz, intellectual.
6. Women in Republican politics: an update, from David S. Bernstein.
7. Sarah Kliff reports on Democratic ideas for health care cost-cutting.
8. And I think I'm jealous of the recognized lost-underwear pundits.