What do you think the prospects are for major changes to our Constitutional system? For instance term limits for (Supreme Court) judges, abolition of the electoral college, an Amendment to overturn Citizens United and allow campaign finance legislation, the ERA, etc.? You don't have to comment on each of these individual items, but I'm interested in if you think there is any possibility of changes at least as radical as these taking place anytime soon.Thanks to partisan polarization, it's very, very difficult to see any changes by Constitutional amendment happening any time soon. Probably the least unlikely would be the electoral college...it's vaguely possible for me to imagine circumstances in which the status quo becomes so overwhelmingly unpopular that switching to a plurality vote becomes viable, with perhaps the state-by-state folks succeeding enough that it puts pressure on Congress to act. But I'd put that one at below 10% chance over 20 years.
However, that doesn't mean big change couldn't happen. Many of the big changes have happened without Constitutional amendment: the McGovern-Fraser reform of the presidential nomination system after 1968 (and subsequent institutionalization in the 1980s); the reform of the House of Representatives from 1958-1975, changing it from a decentralized committee-run chamber into a much more centralized party-run body; the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
The obvious big one on the horizon is the Senate, which is well into a cycle of change (towards obstruction) that appears highly unstable.
What else? I think it depends on the future of the GOP, which I have no prediction for at all. Suppose the GOP continues more or less as it is, or even gets more dysfunctional; it's easy to imagine it winning big in some election cycle and implementing major changes to the system of some kind. On the other hand, it's possible to imagine a GOP that reforms itself and marginalizes the crazies; that opens up a whole different set of potential coalitions.
Do major demographic changes count? It's possible to see big changes happening on immigration, I suppose, and that could changes lots of things.
Not sure what else in the short or medium term horizon.