At PostPartisan today, I did a quick post on some of the pundit spin to ignore tonight. I also participated in some punditing of my own, participating in the Post's prediction panel. I just wish I had seen today's Gallup numbers (with Romney's lead down sharply) before filling it out; I decided to play some longshots, and picked Romney to actually win everywhere but Tennessee and Georgia. Let me explain a bit, if you don't mind...there appear to be (base on the polls) five sure things, with Romney winning in MA, VT, VA, and ID, and Newt in GA. I think Romney is going to win OH. In the other four states, the polling doesn't tell us what will happen; there's no polling in AK and ND, very little in OK, and polling shows a close three way race in TN. So I guessed Romney in three of those question marks. My real stab is OK. Nate Silver's model shows Santorum as a 93% near-lock, but that's based on really just two polls late last week. If Santorum really did collapse a bit after MI/AZ and WA, it's very possible that either Romney or even Newt could win it. So I took a stab.
Meanwhile, I wrote a column at TNR defending caucuses, and mostly defending parties. I like how it turned out, so check it out if you're interested in political parties.
I'll be writing a Super Tuesday wrap at some point over at Greg's place later, and might do a follow-up here if I have more to say. I do love an election day!
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
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Tuesday elections results yields some insights. Romney won Alaska, which demonstrates how much "influence" Sarah Palin has with conservatives. He squeaked by in Ohio, which calls some questions about how solid his candidacy is among Republicans. Santorum continues to pander to the most conservative among the voting electorate, who represent social issues which are of no concern to most like myself: I am a single male, childless, agnostic, working (with health insurance). Gay marriage, abortion, your religion, the imaginary "threat" of "socialism" from the new heath care law, and my "threatened" freedoms are not a concern for clear-thinking individuals...the economy and jobs are!
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