Sunday, March 11, 2012

Sunday Question for Everyone 1

When will Rick Santorum drop out of the race (or at least concede it's over):

After Tuesday (Mississippi/Alabama/Hawaii)?

After March 20 (Illinois)?

After April 3 (Maryland/Wisconsin/DC)?

After April 24 (PA/NY/CT/DE/RI)?

After May 29 (Texas)?

After June 5 (California, New Jersey, others)?

After June 26 (Utah, the final primary)?

Between July 1 and the first day of the convention?

During the convention but before the first ballot?

After the first ballot?


  1. I think he'll stick around until after PA votes.

  2. Whenever Mitt Romney actually gets the majority of delegates (that includes superdelegates). He has too much incentive to stay in the race. Remember he hasn't held office since 2006 and has been a political loser for the past 6ish years. Why would he want to drop out until the numbers stop adding up.

  3. It's clear that he has enough game to hurt Romney, so provided he isn't financially reduced to riding a horse or a Chevy Volt around his campaign stops, I expect him to be in for the duration, at least the end of May.

    If he can hurt Romney enough that Mitt loses in November, that opens up 2016. Not that he has a chance then (he'll still be the same whiny loser he is now) but he must think he does...

  4. After July 1. Possibly only after a summit with Romney.

  5. Santorum won't drop out until he hears heavenly voices telling him to drop out and do something else. Even after election day, he'll keep on running. And Running.

    think of him as The Energizer Bunny of God.

    1. Now I'm never going to be able to see him without thinking of the Energizer Bunny of God.

      Perhaps just as well.

  6. I'll say June 5. I don't think Romney will be close enough to the number of delegates needed for the nomination until then. He still probably won't have a majority at that point, but he'll have a big enough lead that it'll be clear neither Santorum, Gingrich, Paul, or anybody else will be the nominee. At that point, Santorum will be the loyal GOP solider and bow out in hopes it gets him consideration for the VP, cabinet secretary, or ambassador and to avoid pissing off the party elite in preparation for whatever he runs for next.

  7. March 21-22 after Romney drubs him in Illinois by double digits. After losing 3 Midwesternish states it should be obvious to even the most casual observer that Romney has the nomination, and party actors will feel free to pressure Santorum to wrap it up without taking a hit themselves. Many actors will see it in their or the party's interest to move things along and focus on the general.

    I don't think Santorum will plow ahead too much longer once party actors start urging him to bow out. Politics is, after all, a "team sport".

  8. If Romney wins Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday, it's over and I expect Santorum to drop out within a few days. Even if Romney doesn't win, the primary calendar after AL/MS is still very favorable to him and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins ten or so primaries in a row. No one could survive that and Santorum knows it. In my view after Romney pulls another convincing victory in Wisconsin everyone will have to realize it's over if they haven't yet, at the absolute latest, though I'd predict Santorum will withdraw by Friday.

  9. Drew: I'm not as sure as you that Romney is going to drub Santorum by double digits in Illinois. The Chicago Tribune poll shows Romney only slightly ahead, with Santorum strong downstate.

    If Santorum loses only narrowly, he can claim that Illinois--a state where moderates have historically been strong in the GOP--Michigan, and Ohio really show that there is an anti-Romney conservative majority in the GOP in the Midwest as well as the South, that the only reason Romney narrowly prevailed in those three states was that Gingrich split the conservative vote, that Gingrich should now drop out, etc.

  10. I'll go with post-PA.
    I think that he won't get the delegates he needs out of there. Every contest just piles them up. I mean, technically, he could take them all in Texas and CA and make up for lost ground, but, in reality, he can't (and not just because he's Rick Santorum).


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