Thursday, November 8, 2012

Yes, 2016 Started Already

I've mentioned this before, but I'm already hearing the complaints, so here we go again.

The battle for the 2016 Democratic nomination for president started some time ago.

The battle for the 2016 Republican nomination probably started during September, during the stretch where Mitt Romney was down in the polls and seemed to many to have little chance of changing that; it may have started even earlier in a less serious way, but it surely began by midnight last night, at any rate.

To be sure: both of these fights are very much in the preliminary stages. It's very possible that the eventual nominee really hasn't started doing anything yet, and won't for another year or more. But some candidates are actively thinking about it, beginning to sound out staff, beginning to seek support from various party groups, beginning to judge which issues and what rhetoric will appeal to the people who will determine the nomination. And organized groups and even activists are beginning to work to make sure that their interests and preferences will be represented by the party in the next presidential election.

All that happens, whether the press (or other blogging observers) talk about it or not.

Now, we can talk about it sensibly or not...polling Iowa and New Hampshire right now is a silly stunt, not that I have any problem with it. But this is real politics, and if it's happening -- and judging from past cycles it surely is -- then of course the press should cover it.

12 comments:

  1. I'm on Team Gillibrand (assuming Secretary Clinton doesn't run). Who are others for?

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  2. I'm not entirely sure the D ticket has started quite yet, but yes, yesterday was the official start of the R nomination.

    However, I am pretty sure it is called the invisible primary because it is invisible.

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  3. with no clinton running, I'm torn between Cuomo and O'Malley

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  4. My top choice is Clinton. If she doesn't run, Biden. If neither of them run, Warren. If none of them run, I'm basically indifferent, but I don't like Cuomo at all, and I'd break a tie in favor of whomever was not a white man.

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    1. Amusingly, I'm pretty sure Biden and Warren would be the top Republican choices, too.

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    2. If you're going to return to Massachusetts for your candidate, at least consider Deval Patrick.

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    3. I'm pretty sure Biden and Warren would be the top Republican choices

      Likewise, I'd pay good money to get the Republicans to nominate a Bush.

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  5. Ok, I've got Rand Paul opening the first campaign office in NH... Who wants some of this action?!

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  6. Has there even been as wild a swing in candidate quality as the one that will occur between the 2012 GOP and 2016 GOP primaries?

    2012: Hermain Cain, Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, and Donald Trump (!), with Sarah Palin as the potential stalking horse.

    2016 (the likely candidates, at least right now): Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Rob Portman, with Jeb Bush as the stalking horse.

    Say what you will about the latter group, but they're all fairly competent politicians (save perhaps ole "Honest" Ryan).








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    1. Well, let's see who we eventually get. I won't be surprised if the eventual field narrows to two or three candidates with conventional qualifications by the time we get to Iowa.

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    2. Roy Perkins, impartial dogcatcherNovember 9, 2012 at 6:41 PM

      Well, as for naming "likely candidates" in 2016, one would do well to remember this: If the people reading this blog had been asked four years ago to guess who would be the Republican Presidential candidates in 2012, every single list would have included Palin and Huckabee, and most would have included Jindal. None would have included Cain. None would have included Santorum--and if anyone had not only included him, but suggested he would end up in second place, that person would have been widely jeered. A few lists might have included Gingrich, on the grounds that he always talks about running and his age made this year his last chance, but there would have been general agreement that he would have ended up in the back of the pack, and would have dropped out early on.

      Of course, every list would also have included Romney, and many would have marked him as the likeliest nominee. So, we cannot draw the conclusion that no one knows nothing now. Still, a little uncertainty should be acknowledged.

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  7. I predict Susan Martinez will run. It will be the end of the Democrats pandering to woman and latinos. Finally the truth about handouts will be known. It will not improve most peoples lives, the money will run out and the even all the rich people paying all of their money back to the government cant cover the tab. It as Obama says. The math doesnt add up. Well sorry to inform you his math is even worse. They arent cutting anything those 8 for 1 spending cuts. Well if you make 45,000 as a government employee and have a 5 percent annual salary increase it goes to say by reducing that to 1.5 percent isnt going to do anything. How about this for 4yrs you make 42,500.

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