Today the House is scheduled to vote for the Upton bill, at least unless conservatives decide at the last minute that it really is a fix, and therefore helping Obamacare.
Some Democrats will vote for it.
A quick hint: House Democratic votes for Upton, in a situation in which the bill won't be coming to the Senate floor, may be an indication that Republicans have successfully crafted a bill that puts pressure on Democrats to split their votes. But it's not an indication that Democrats are abandoning the ACA.
This happened just a month ago, when Republicans during the shutdown brought up a series of mini-CRs and successfully peeled off some Democrats on those, too. Some Republicans convinced themselves at the time that this was an indication that Democrats were splitting, and that Republicans were going to win the shutdown. We know how that turned out.
Whether it's a deliberate leadership strategy or not, House Democrats worried about re-election appear perfectly willing to defect on symbolic votes set up by Republicans to make political points. Nancy Pelosi and the leadership are either unable to prevent it, or -- more likely -- don't care and don't try to prevent it.
So when Yuval Levin predicts that Democrats who vote for Upton "might well never come back to the Obamacare fold," don't believe it. There's an enormous difference between playing along on a symbolic vote and abandoning a policy Democrats are stuck with, like it or not. And the truth is: most of them almost certainly do like it. What's more, as long as there's no plausible alternative that could work better for them, they really, at the end of the day, have little choice.
At any rate, whatever the chances are that they eventually bail on ACA, this vote isn't about that. Just as symbolic votes during the shutdown didn't indicated that Democrats were divided (or, for that matter, that Republicans were unified). If Republicans do make that mistake again...well, at least they'll be consistent.