Happy Birthday to Alfre Woodard, 61.
1. Ezra Klein reviews Double Down and The Gamble.
2. Sean Trende breaks out a new explanation for the polling vs. results difference in VA-Gov.
3. While Mark Blumenthal and Ariel Edwards-Levy consider both that and other possibilities. I'm sticking with different switch-away from the Libertarian as my best guess, but I'll admit it's more speculative than solid.
4. And: State of the Parties! The papers are here. This is the quadrennial conference on US political parties in Akron that's always excellent. I'll continue retweeting stuff from there tomorrow; if I'm lucky, I'll get to some of the papers, too.