At PP today, I wrote again about Mitt Romney's tax plan, how it doesn't add up, and misdirection.
And at Plum Line, I talked about the polling after the debate. My conclusion, as you might have guessed, is that it's too soon to know anything beyond the initial shift to Romney last Thursday through Saturday -- which at this point is pretty clear. There's a good chance that most or all of it dissipates, but we won't know until later.
In the meantime, I tweeted this out before, but I believe that all the polling-based models still have Obama as the likely winner. Let's see: first of all, HuffPollster's model (by Simon Jackman) currently has Obama slightly in the lead. That's not a forecast; that's their model's best estimate of where things are right now.
Let's see...Nate Silver has the president as a 71% favorite and with 297 electoral votes. Drew Linzer has Obama at a whopping 322 electoral votes. Sam Wang has Obama at 302 EVs. I'm not sure what else I should be looking at, but basically the polls as they are now, taken at face value and historical context, have Obama winning.