Sunday, October 7, 2012
Sunday Question for Liberals
I already asked this about the debates in general, but might as well go back to it now: looking forward to Ryan/Biden, or afraid of Ryan/Biden?
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Jonathan Bernstein
I'm a political scientist blogging about American politics, especially the presidency, Congress, parties, and elections.
New item alerts and occasional other tweets @jbplainblog
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Looking forward, although I doubt if it will make any difference either way.
ReplyDeleteAfter Wednesday, I am afraid of everything. Someone please write a reassuring comment.
ReplyDeleteI think it will go better. One of BO's biggest problems was he refused to attack Mitt, Joe Biden just has to describe what the Ryan budget would do and tie that to Mitt. Remember, Ryan's policy positions are massively unpopular. If you want to have an impact, I suggest just tweeting over and over again at political journalists during the debate. That's seems to be how they make up their mind about who "won."
DeleteThanks, longwalkdownlyndale,
DeleteI agree with your analysis, but the same could have been said about wednesday's debate and it didn't happen. This is what's so puzzling to me. Obviously, the right had a lot of fun with teleprompter jokes this week. But crazy right wing fantasies aside, Obama knows what Romney's plan is and what it will mean for working people. That's what's so perplexing about the debate. Here is a guy who always delivers under pressure, until Wednesday. I know it's only one debate, and Obama has the skills and the record to correct this, but it was astounding to see him fall so short. I know he is only human, but I would really hate to see this election turn on such a dishonest performance from Romney.
The difference in affect was so great Wednesday that people missed the rejoinders that President Obama did make. In another context his telling Romney that you just can't say "never mind" about the positions you've been taking for a year, probably would have resonated.
DeleteOn this, Biden will be ready.
Bryan,
ReplyDeleteThe single most devastating moment in a vice-presidential debate, pretty much the only thing from a vice-presidential debate anyone remembers, is Lloyd Bentsen's "You're no Jack Kennedy"--and Bush and Quayle won that election. The stakes on a VP debate are very, very small. So don't worry.
Thanks, William.
DeleteWhen was the last time Ryan debated anyone?
ReplyDeleteExactly! Let's see what he's got!
DeleteI'm not afraid of this one. Williams Burns' point is well-taken, and besides, Biden's pretty good at this. With the expectations in Ryan's corner, he should be fine as long as he uses the word "literally" less than 197 times.
ReplyDeleteBut I'm not looking forward to it, either, because: See above. Besides, I think the race is basically in stasis until we see if the President can right the ship in the next debate. The Veep can't fix this one.
Looking forward, on the assumption that the President and VP will be better prepared going into the next three.
ReplyDeleteI'm a little nervous, but Biden sometimes comes up big at the right moment. I'm of the mind tha there are two Joe Bidens- there's the ole Joe from Scranton who talk about the middle class and how Joe Sixpack and Suzy Q will better off with the democrats. We saw this Biden at the DNC this year. Then there's elder statesman Joe Biden. We saw this Biden at the most recent Sept 11th memorial ceremony in Pennsylvania where he gave a heartfelt, beautiful speech. In the debate, most americans are expecting Scranton Joe, but I'd love to see a little
ReplyDeleteMore elder statesman Joe. I'd love to see him make Paul Ryan look like the fast-talking vapid purveyor of radicalism that he is.
Agree with PA Politico, I think Biden's able to shift into different gears, and it would be rewarding to see Biden shift into a higher gear against Ryan. Hoping that a good debate lifts Dem spirits after last Wednesday; I certainly continue to think the President is favored for re-election, but I'd like him to run up the score a little and hopefully lift up Senate and House candidates.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to it. Ryan will be exposed as a fraud.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it'll matter, but I'm looking forward to it purely as television, because I have no idea what to expect. Will Ryan be crowned the winner for saying made-up numbers, but with confidence? Will Biden aggressively try to take Ryan apart, only to accidentally mangle his quotes?
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to it (though I have to be somewhere else and will miss it in real time). I don't know where people got the idea that Biden's main feature as a speaker was being gaffe-prone. He says something silly every few months and the media magnify it, but in 1988 (and before) his main political claim to fame was being outstanding on the stump--in a loose, spontaneous way that's perfect for debates. He's much less of an intellectual than the President, but a much better debater. Ryan, on the other hand, excels at a sarcastic, partisan speaking style that's calculated to please only the base. Sure, he might be able to shift gears, but it will be a chore.
ReplyDeleteMostly uninterested, to be honest -- I cannot imagine a way the debate will move the ball in either direction (unless somebody says something truly catastrophic, and not just "quotable"). These are the VP candidates, after all, and neither of them has Palin's ability to capture the American attention. I expect Joe to be much more aggressive and Paul to be fairly slippery -- much more of a "wash" debate, with Ryan winning some support and Biden winning others. I doubt either one will drive much of a narrative in the wake, and frankly I think Biden would be wise to aim for a moderate success rather than a home run. He has a tendency to try to do too much, in my opinion, and my only slight worry is that he'll really go after Ryan in a way that is unseemly in a media-eats-it-up way (he wouldn't really call him "granny-starver", I expect, but part of me worries it's just the sort of thing Joe pops off in private). A passionate, seasoned populist argument is all we need from Biden, and he's more than capable of it -- I'm betting he'll deliver, and it will (at most) nudge the polls a tiny amount Obama's direction, but that's tenths of a point at most.
ReplyDeleteInterested, because I think the media has begun to fetishize Ryan's tendency to lie, and since he likes to double down when challenged, I think there is a reaonable chance that the narrative coming out of the debate will be "Ryan's plan doesn't add up" or something like that, only in a greater magnitude than it was following the RNC.
ReplyDeleteI think Joe Biden will do well against ZEGS. Joe's been around the town a lot more than that boy genius.
ReplyDeleteNeither. I've discovered I don't have the patience to watch politicians on TV this year even ones I agree with and support. So I am not looking forward to any of the remaining debates. I'm going to skip them all and just read about them on news sites and blogs afterwards. I'm also not afraid of Paul Ryan who is only slightly more knowledgeable of public policy and qualified to be VP than Sarah Palin.
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to it. I think any major polling bounce for Romney after the last debate will prove mostly fleeting, but I do think there is cause to be concerned about Dem enthusiasm and morale among volunteers and supporters. Seeing the boss phone it in last Wednesday really took a toll on those folks. But Biden is immensely popular among Democratic partisans (and Ryan is universally despised) and this is a big opportunity for him to hearten the base. Even if it barely moves the dial with undecideds, I think it represents a great opportunity.
ReplyDelete