Happy Birthday to Matt Cain, 28. His baseball-ref most similar going in to the season was John Smoltz, and Cain had a better age-27 year than Smoltz did...but Smoltz then took a big step forward and had five excellent years after that. Still, I'm curious about what Cain's most-similar list will look like after this season.
In the meantime, the good stuff:
1. I know I'm going to write a pre-debate post sometime this week, but alas for me Seth Masket already has it all covered. Short, to the point, covers it all.
2. More on the party ID/polling question, from Mark Blumenthal; see also Simon Jackman's estimates of "house effects." Once again, they're pretty small.
3. Ezra Klein talks to Lynn Vavreck about undecided voters.
4. Nate Silver on economic data and politics.
5. Eric McGhee on redistricting -- the apparent effects of the 2010 round.
6. I have no idea whether Laura Helmuth is correct or not about Lyme Disease, but I don't think the Romney/Ryan campaign has received nearly enough ridicule for sending out a flyer on the topic in which the first action they're promising is to "IMPROVE SYNERGY." I suppose if it worked for Liz Lemon sort of...
7. And I really enjoyed this interview with Chris Weuve about aircraft carriers in space and other issues between real-life naval warfare and science fiction, especially in film and TV, but I'm still left wondering: why would Khan automatically, through inexperience, fail to understand three-dimensional warfare? It's such a great movie, but I've always had a problem with that.