Happy Birthday to Matt Cain, 28. His baseball-ref most similar going in to the season was John Smoltz, and Cain had a better age-27 year than Smoltz did...but Smoltz then took a big step forward and had five excellent years after that. Still, I'm curious about what Cain's most-similar list will look like after this season.
In the meantime, the good stuff:
1. I know I'm going to write a pre-debate post sometime this week, but alas for me Seth Masket already has it all covered. Short, to the point, covers it all.
2. More on the party ID/polling question, from Mark Blumenthal; see also Simon Jackman's estimates of "house effects." Once again, they're pretty small.
3. Ezra Klein talks to Lynn Vavreck about undecided voters.
4. Nate Silver on economic data and politics.
5. Eric McGhee on redistricting -- the apparent effects of the 2010 round.
6. I have no idea whether Laura Helmuth is correct or not about Lyme Disease, but I don't think the Romney/Ryan campaign has received nearly enough ridicule for sending out a flyer on the topic in which the first action they're promising is to "IMPROVE SYNERGY." I suppose if it worked for Liz Lemon sort of...
7. And I really enjoyed this interview with Chris Weuve about aircraft carriers in space and other issues between real-life naval warfare and science fiction, especially in film and TV, but I'm still left wondering: why would Khan automatically, through inexperience, fail to understand three-dimensional warfare? It's such a great movie, but I've always had a problem with that.
Monday, October 1, 2012
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Dear Jonathan:
ReplyDeleteThat link on the Eric McGhee article seems to not be correct.
By the way, thanks for your work. Awesome blog you have here.
Thanks -- fixed.
DeleteAnd thanks!
BTW, always wanted to ask:
ReplyDeleteThese tab-dump posts' title....Yoda, stereotypical Jewish mother, or what?
That's what I came up with first time I did one, and so that's what it is. Feel free to interpret it, or me, as you wish.
DeleteThe Eric McGhee article seems pretty weak to me. I question his methodology when he says the Democratic gerrymander in Maryland will not gain the Democrats a seat (his table shows no change in seats in Maryland). The current delegation is 6-2 Democratic, and the redisticting made the 6th district, held for the last 2o years by 86 year old Republican incumbent Roscoe Bartlett 16 percentage points more Democratic, from a district that went 58 to 40% for McCain to one that went 56% to 42% for Obama in the 2008 election! All the political observers that rate House races have Bartlett's seat leaning or likely Democratic. The six Democratic members of Congress all received seats that went at least 60% for Obama in 2008, and all are ranked as safe Democratic seats. Everyone who's looked seriously at Maryland politics thinks that the Democratic gerrymander there will take a 6-2 Democratic House delegation to 7-1. McGhee is a real outlier here.
ReplyDeleteA Giants fan?!? Oh dear.
ReplyDelete/s/ Dodgers fan