Monday, October 29, 2012

Read Stuff, You Should

Happy Birthday to Jose Mijares, 28, of your World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. Picked up on a waiver claim!

I promise I'll lay off the Giants talk soon; meanwhile, I'll make up for it with some good stuff:

1. More on momentum: Great Brendan Nyhan column on why the press loves it.

2. Solid example, from Philip Klein, of how to make the strongest reality-based case for a candidate behind in the polls (in this case, Romney in Ohio) having a chance. The way to do it? Begin with an honest acceptance of what the polls say; embrace the uncertainty inherent in polls; mention as possibilities -- not certainty -- any plausible reasons that least-favorable polls could be off. Truth is there are always plausible reasons the polls might be off; the problem is that there are always plausible reasons in both directions, and so in reality most of the time the polls are correct. But not always, and as long as it's within a plausible range I see nothing wrong with an optimistic read. Key is to not ignore the basic numbers, and to not invent entirely bogus reasons to ignore reality. See also, by the way, Nate Cohn on Ohio.

3. Wait, Dan Senor is being floated for National Security Advisor? Really? Good Marc Tracy item on Senor.

4. Dan Hopkins brings some nice election notes. The main one I care about, as you might guess, is the point about attention to Senate races.

5. I should note that I disagree with his eventual conclusion about districting, but regardless: Nolan McCarty explains why gerrymandering is not a significant source of partisan polarization.

6. John Sides on how Sandy could affect the elections (and be sure to check the comments for more).

7. And Alyssa Rosenberg: "I feel like in the zombie apocalypse, Bain Capital would probably survive to restructure the remaining human sanctuaries." She's reacting, of course, to the great Joss Whedon endorsement.

1 comment:

  1. For everyone except the winners' fans, the day after the World Series is the most melancholy day of the year.

    For the winners' fans, it's the day after the day after.


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